Glimmers of a Deal
"The signals in the last two to three days," he said, "are that we are close to some sort of an arrangement."
He offered no details, but his comment lines up with what other mediators are seeing. According to Al Jazeera, a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson described the Iran-Oman talks on a shipping channel through the strait as reaching a "critical juncture."
The White House was less talkative. When Trump was asked Monday evening what the U.S. would do next, he answered, "You'll find out."
Trading Demands Back and Forth
The core problem is that neither side wants to move first. Iran's Supreme National Security Council says the waterway stays shut unless the U.S. ends its naval blockade and sanctions, withdraws forces, pays war reparations, and halts attacks on Iran's regional allies.
Trump responded with a demand of his own. He wrote that he is "likewise demanding compensation from Iran" for damages that reach back 50 years.
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He also called for payments to the families of Iranian protesters killed over that stretch, saying he has "instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations." If there are damages to be paid, he added, "I think Iran should pay those damages."
The sanctions fight is part of the same stalemate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the pressure on Iran as "suffocating," while Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, called Washington's habit of turning to sanctions a "compulsive addiction" rather than a policy.
Trump then went a step further on the waterway itself. "The only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now is the United States Navy," he said, claiming 100% control and praising the blockade of Iranian ports.
That is the heart of the standoff. The U.S. sees its Navy as the guarantee that oil keeps moving, while Iran sees that same Navy as the reason the strait is shut.
Neither side is treating this as abstract politics. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. forces fired early Tuesday on a Panama-flagged vessel trying to bypass the blockade.
The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre also reported an incident Tuesday morning involving a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, saying investigations were ongoing. It is not clear whether those are the same event.
What It Means for Your Money
Skip the geopolitics for a second and the stakes are simple.
That squeeze has already pushed oil prices sharply higher and sent a shock through the global economy. Prices fluctuated again Tuesday morning as traders weighed hints of progress against more tough talk, so expect the back-and-forth to keep moving markets.
Lloyd Chan of MUFG Bank in Singapore, a senior currency analyst, thinks a full-scale regional war is not the base case. He says tanker traffic through the strait remains subdued and Brent prices are far above pre-conflict levels, but flare-ups remain possible.
Trump has repeatedly threatened large-scale military action, but lately he has signaled a willingness to stick with economic pressure instead. That contrast helps explain why oil prices cannot settle.
For investors, the situation is straightforward. A real deal would likely take pressure off oil prices quickly, while a collapse in talks could send them climbing again. Either way, the Strait of Hormuz is going to keep showing up in your portfolio's story for a while.
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