1,000 flights in April. Fuel is running out - not in months, but in weeks. Europe's airports and airlines are warning that a full-blown jet fuel shortage could hit by May if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen, since the region depends on the Persian Gulf for up to a third of its jet fuel supply. Local refineries can't ramp up fast enough to close the gap.
Several European countries have only 8-10 days of jet fuel reserves before they'd need to start rationing. Airports Council International said the situation will become "systemic" within three to four weeks, meaning severe flight cuts across the continent starting in May and June.
SAS cancelled 1,000 flights in April, while Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said the airline would have to cut flights and reduce summer capacity if the shortage continues. Wizz Air expects a 50 million euro hit to its 2026 profit. Virgin Atlantic's CEO told the Financial Times the airline will struggle to turn any profit this year even after adding fuel surcharges.
Air travel drives 851 billion euros in GDP across Europe and supports 14 million jobs - roughly the same as the entire economy of the Netherlands. A fuel shortage hitting right before peak summer travel season could ripple through tourism, business travel, and supply chains across the continent.
If Hormuz doesn't reopen in some meaningful way within weeks, cancellations will spread beyond SAS and Ryanair to every major European carrier. The summer travel season - and the economic activity that depends on it - is on the clock.
