Private equity is where the smart money is supposed to go. So it's worth a pause when a top player says a lot of that money is stuck.
Scott Kleinman is co-president of Apollo Global Management. Apollo is one of the biggest names in the business.
It now manages around a trillion dollars. When a firm that big talks, peers pay attention.
So when Kleinman flags trouble, the whole room listens. And this week, he flagged plenty.
First, a quick primer. Private equity firms buy whole companies, fix them up, and sell them later for a profit.
It's one of the best-known alternative investments. Those are the assets that sit outside normal stocks and bonds.
Kleinman spoke at an industry event in Berlin. He said the field "lost its way a little bit" in the cheap-money years.
Back then, borrowing was easy and rates were low. Now rates are higher, and the math has changed.
His blunt line: firms will "have to start capitulating for sure on valuations." In plain English, the prices they paid were too high.
A lot of companies were bought at the top of the market. Their owners now have to admit they're worth less.
We make sense of moves like this - the ones that quietly hit pensions and 401(k)s - every morning in Market Briefs, and you get a free investing masterclass when you join.
Private equity runs on a simple loop. Raise money, buy a company, sell it later, return the profit.
That last step has jammed. Firms are sitting on a record pile of unsold companies.
Those companies are worth trillions of dollars. Many were bought during the cheap-money boom.
Even if deals pick up, clearing that pile takes years. There are far more sellers than buyers right now.
Think of a house flipper who bought at the peak. He won't drop his asking price, so the house just sits.
That's the trap these firms are in. Their cash is frozen until they sell.
Here's why that matters so much. Private equity only makes money when it sells.
A fund that can't sell can't pay its investors back. And that makes its next fundraise much harder.
Kleinman said the worst pain is in older funds. He pointed to ones raised between 2017 and 2022.
They paid the highest prices of the boom. So they now earn the weakest returns.
Cheap loans from a few years ago are gone. Rolling them over now costs a lot more.
That extra cost eats straight into profits. Less profit means less cash back for investors.
He even warned that some weaker firms could shrink. A few may have to close down for good.
Most people never buy into private equity directly. But pensions, college funds, and 401(k)s often do.
So weaker returns can trickle down to regular savers. The pain doesn't stay on Wall Street.
For now, the message from a top player is simple. The prices paid in the boom years have to come down.
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