Senators press HHS on betting markets tied to drug trials and FDA decisions

What the senators want to know

In a Wednesday letter, Maryland's Angela Alsobrooks and Oregon's Ron Wyden pressed HHS on prediction markets that reference clinical studies and Food and Drug Administration outcomes, and asked what measures are in place to curb potential risks. They also asked HHS to turn over all internal communications about staff taking part in prediction markets related to matters under the department's purview.

The request goes further: the senators want every communication between HHS and prediction market platforms, any exchanges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees event contracts, and any internal assessments of how these markets might affect the health system.

The concerns behind the inquiry

"Allowing individuals to bet on the success of these trials and drugs undermines the scientific process, creates perverse incentives for researchers, harms trial participants, and could lead to dangerous medical outcomes for untold numbers of Americans," the senators wrote. They echoed worries raised by some healthcare professionals that wagering could influence how patients weigh joining a study.

They also flagged possible insider trading risks involving researchers and regulators who might access information that is not public. As they put it, "HHS, FDA, and [the National Institutes of Health] must uphold the integrity of the drug development process and maintain public trust in the public health by putting essential guardrails in place to prevent individuals profiting on the success and approval of drugs that the American people depend on."

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Where the markets stand now

Two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, offer these kinds of contracts. Polymarket's listings are confined to its international exchange, which is not regulated in the U.S. Kalshi began offering related markets in July and said it set limits to reduce risk by focusing on late stage trials, only listing contracts after a study has finished enrolling, and using employee verification technology for all traders.

Why it matters for your portfolio

Policy attention on event contracts touching drug development points to two drivers for biopharma investors: who controls material information and how incentives shape behavior around trials and approvals. The questions now on HHS's desk go straight to those levers, which can influence timelines, data disclosure, and ultimately how markets price regulatory risk.

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