Australian Home Loans Plunge 15.5% As Borrowing Cools

What happened

Australia just logged a record quarterly slide in home lending, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released Wednesday. The 15.5% retreat over the September quarter was almost twice the drop economists expected, making it the largest decline since the series started in 2002.

The investor segment bore the brunt, with the value of loans to property investors down 32.3% in the quarter. First-time owner-occupier borrowers also pulled back, with the value of those loans easing 8%.

Why it fell

The downturn comes as the Reserve Bank has lifted rates five times this year to rein in stubborn inflation. After last week's increase, the cash rate sits at 4.85%, an 18-year high, and the tightening campaign has contributed to notable declines in house prices nationwide.

Investor behavior is not about rates alone. "Our data suggests that investor activity is being influenced by factors beyond increasing borrowing costs, including the potential impacts of tax changes and expectations of lower house prices," said Mish Tan, the ABS's head of finance statistics.

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Policy shifts and stress signals

In May, the government scrapped longstanding tax breaks on existing homes for buy-to-let properties. Those changes included lower capital gains levies and allowing landlords to deduct rental losses from their tax. Separately, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said home loan arrears rose by 7 basis points in the September quarter, citing broader cost-of-living strains tied to elevated inflation and higher interest rates.

What it means for your portfolio

Rate hikes, tax settings, and household budgets are pulling the same rope on housing risk. With the cash rate at 4.85% and investor incentives on existing buy-to-lets wound back, credit quality and transaction volumes look highly sensitive to policy and price expectations.

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