News of Anthropic's historic IPO plans lifted tech sentiment, and the action in perpetual futures added fuel. A fast-growing niche called pre-IPO perpetuals - contracts meant to mirror private-company pricing - trades on decentralized crypto venues including Hyperliquid, Coinbase, Binance and OKX. It is tough to handicap day-one IPO moves, but this corner of the market is trying.
Right now, Hyperliquid's Anthropic perpetual implies a $98 stock price and about $1.7 trillion in market value, more than 30% above the 78 range the company listed in its updated S1.
Hyperliquid's Anthropic pre-IPO contract went live two weeks ago with an initial mark of $138, then settled into roughly a ten dollar channel between $110 and $120. During last week's tech selloff, it briefly slipped under $94.
The venue is not accessible to U.S. investors at the moment. Even so, Hyperliquid reports roughly $250 million changed hands across its two Anthropic markets over the past 24 hours.
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Fans of these instruments say the pricing hints at bankers setting IPO terms conservatively to tee up a pop after listing. They point to SpaceX: its pre-IPO perps traded at a premium, met the equity price at the IPO, then the shares rallied for three days by as much as 40% right after the debut.
Anthropic's upcoming roadshow may also be pressuring a rival. Contracts tied to OpenAI's market cap fell 7% to $1.27 trillion, and the OpenAI-linked market on Hyperliquid recorded about $2.8 billion in trading over the last 24 hours.
Shares of Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) - the publicly traded Treasury company that invests in the HYPE tokens powering the exchange - fell 4% on Tuesday. The stock is still up 150% for the year. In plain English: pre-IPO perps are signaling upbeat expectations for Anthropic this month, but the price action shows how quickly sentiment can swing in these markets.
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