On Thursday, Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service said the Kremlin seems increasingly ready to take risks following 4½ years of fighting in Ukraine. The agency assesses a "low but growing risk" that Russia might launch limited, stand-alone attacks using long-range weapons against infrastructure linked to supporting Ukraine. It added, "A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia's part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months."
The intended effect, according to the assessment, would be "to redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response."
The report sketches a few possibilities. Russia could try to place a limited number of troops into NATO countries on its border, potentially without insignia, though DDIS said assembling such a presence would be tough to hide and would require several months of preparation. At the same time, the agency said it has seen no signs of plans for a full invasion of a NATO member, while noting it cannot rule that out.
Separately, DDIS expects Russia to ramp up hybrid warfare against the West and NATO "with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past," including major cyberattacks that could seriously damage key societal functions and sabotage operations that carry a high risk of casualties.
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The Danish warning arrives as senior European security officials and lawmakers have been issuing similar alerts. NATO members sharing a border with Russia include Finland, Norway and Poland, along with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
Tensions were on display in Poland on Thursday, where the government said a fire at a Starlink ground station constituted sabotage intended to disrupt internet services, including those used by Ukraine's military. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said investigators have not yet identified who was responsible, but added that "many signs suggest this aligns with Russia's new doctrine of attack," according to Reuters. Russia's embassy in London did not have an immediate comment when CNBC reached out, and the Kremlin has in the past rejected any role in similar episodes.
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