What Goldman is seeing
Goldman Sachs economists Clemens Grafe and Basak Edizgil said on Sept. 21 that the pattern of flows points to investors shifting money pulled from money-market funds into lira time and savings accounts. That shift appears to be happening even as deposit rates have eased. On a valuation-adjusted basis, lira deposits saw far stronger inflows than foreign exchange or gold deposits, and last week's jump put the month's gain at roughly $20 billion.
The flows in numbers
In the week ending Sept. 11, money-market funds shed about $1.8 billion, lifting month-to-date outflows over the first half of September to roughly $4 billion. Over a similar window, lira deposits rose by approximately $12 billion as of Sept. 15, which helps explain where a big chunk of those redeemed assets likely went.
Stress in funds and the crackdown
A wave of redemptions earlier this month hit several prominent funds, including those run by Tera Portfoy Yonetimi AS and Pusula Portfoy Yonetimi AS, leaving them unable to meet withdrawal requests. Regulators have frozen 131 funds and directed them into liquidation. Officials have either taken into custody or sought the arrest of senior executives, among them Tera's Emre Tezmen and Pusula's Serdar Turhan.
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Why this matters for your portfolio
The exit of hundreds of billions of liras from money-market funds sparked fears of a dash into dollars that could pressure the currency and complicate the fight against inflation. A steady lira is central to Turkey's disinflation plan. If more of this cash is indeed settling in lira deposits, that could calm policymakers' nerves for a bit. For everyday savers, keep an eye on where the cash is pooling, because those currents tend to shape deposit rates, currency moves, and the real-world cost of keeping money safe.
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