Britain's builders have been in a slump for over a year. February made it official: this is the longest unbroken contraction since the global financial crisis.
S&P Global's UK Construction PMI fell to 44.5 in February, down from January's seven-month high of 46.4. Any reading below 50 means the sector is shrinking. The index has been below 50 every single month since January 2025 — 14 months straight — matching the kind of sustained contraction last seen during the 2007-09 financial crisis.
The February drop was also worse than expected. Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a reading of 47.0.
Housebuilding led the decline with an index reading of just 37.0 — deep in contraction territory. S&P Global's Tim Moore said a "sharper downturn in house building was the main factor," coming after what had looked like a stabilization at the start of the year. Order books fell for the 14th consecutive month, with firms citing sluggish demand and a lack of new project starts.
An exceptionally wet February didn't help. Parts of Cornwall, Leicestershire, and the West Midlands had their wettest winter on record, according to the Met Office via LBC, which pushed construction delays higher. Cost pressures also hit their steepest rise in months, squeezing margins further.
Data firm Glenigan reported that the value of project starts worth £100 million or less fell 10% year-over-year in the three months through February — a sign that smaller builders are pulling back hardest.
Business optimism reached its highest level in 14 months. About 42% of firms expect output to rise over the next year — against just 12% who expect further decline. The hope centers on incoming infrastructure and energy sector work, where tender opportunities are starting to appear.
The problem: optimism and activity are two different things. Firms have been hopeful about a turnaround for months. It hasn't arrived yet. With the Iran war now threatening to push up material costs and disrupt steel and energy supply chains, the window for recovery may be narrowing before it widens.
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