Vladimir Potanin does not think the slump is over. In a Saturday interview with RBC TV, he said, "We cannot yet say that we have passed the lowest point," and pointed to weak investment as the main drag on recovery. He credited Moscow with making "titanic efforts" to balance the budget, saying that could create room for the central bank to ease and for other steps to spark growth. But he cautioned that higher taxes, including those aimed at miners, risk deepening the investment shortfall.
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As war spending in Ukraine climbs, the state is wrestling with a wider deficit and is placing a heavier burden across nearly all other sectors of the economy via higher taxes, fees, and other revenue measures. For miners specifically, authorities have imposed a windfall charge of up to 30% on "excess" profits for 2027-2029, and Norilsk Nickel is among the companies most affected.
Potanin said that levy could crimp big companies' investment plans. "We understand the need for an additional fiscal burden. But that burden should come exclusively from profits," he said. He added that shifting tax rules, and the planning headaches they create, may deter investment even more than steep interest rates or a shortage of capital.
Potanin, who leads MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC and is its largest shareholder, is Russia's third-richest billionaire with a $22 billion fortune, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His remarks underscore a widening split between major companies and a government intent on ensuring the war remains funded. He said businesses backed tax reforms two years ago based on the understanding tax policy would be stable through 2030, but that commitment had not been kept.
With the economy ministry projecting only 0.6% growth this year, the tradeoff is clear: rising taxes and policy uncertainty on one side, and the possibility of rate cuts if the budget holds together on the other. If you have exposure to Russian miners or broader Russian assets, the key variable to watch is how the tax regime settles and whether companies keep spending on investment.
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