OPEC Output Has Fallen 30% Since The Iran War Started

Iraq's oil output is down 66%, and Kuwait's is down 76%.

Somehow Saudi Arabia is getting all the headlines. The smaller Gulf states are the ones taking the worst hits.

OPEC just said group output has dropped more than 30% since the Iran war began in late February.

April's Drop

April output fell another 1.7 million barrels a day. That came on top of a bigger drop in March.

Add it up: OPEC members are pumping 9.7 million barrels a day less than in February.

Saudi Arabia took the biggest single hit. Its output went from 10.1 million barrels a day pre-war to 6.8 million in April.

The UAE dropped from 3.4 million to 2 million.

The cause has been the same all spring: Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz. That's the path where about one-fifth of the world's oil moves each day.

The IEA is a group of mostly Western states focused on energy. It said more than 14 million barrels a day are now off the market.

Iran has kept the strait closed since the war began in late February. The total supply loss from Gulf oil producers now exceeds 1 billion barrels, per the IEA.

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OPEC And The IEA See Different Futures

OPEC cut its 2026 demand forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day, down from 1.4 million. Still positive.

The IEA sees it the other way. It thinks global oil demand will fall by 420,000 barrels a day this year.

That gap matters. If OPEC is right, prices stay high as supply tries to catch up.

If the IEA is right, the world uses less oil even with Hormuz closed.

The two groups are looking at the same world and walking away with different reads.

The IEA notes that the gap between supply and demand is smaller than it looks, since the market had a surplus heading into 2026. Still, that buffer is thinning fast.

How The Gap Gets Filled

Buyers and sellers are not just sitting still.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are routing some exports through ports that skip Hormuz. U.S. firms have pushed their exports to record highs.

Public and private stocks are being drawn down fast. Stockpiles fell by 250 million barrels over March and April.

The buffer is shrinking faster than new supply can replace it.

At the current pace, the cushion will keep shrinking through the summer.

What To Watch

The summer driving season is about to hit. The IEA sees more price swings as peak demand meets shrinking stockpiles.

OPEC has one fewer member as well. The UAE left the group on May 1.

That move means the cartel speaks for a smaller share of world oil than it used to.

For investors, the next data points to watch are the IEA's June print and the price of WTI crude.

The summer will set the tone for the rest of the year.

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