ECB's Wunsch Sees June Hike Likely If Iran War Drags On

The ECB does not usually preview rate moves in public. One of its more hawkish voices just did.

Pierre Wunsch runs Belgium's central bank. He also sits on the ECB's rate-setting council.

He told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday that the odds of a June hike are climbing.

His framing: if the war is not over by the next meeting, "the likelihood of a hike is quite high."

Why Wunsch Is Watching The War

The Iran fight has pushed oil prices up sharply, with Brent crude now around $111 a barrel. That is about 84% higher than in mid-December.

When energy costs jump, they spread to most other prices. That covers shipping, food, and factory output.

Wunsch's worry is that this energy shock seeps into wages and other prices. That would lock in higher inflation for years.

He told Bloomberg the eurozone is "at the beginning of an inflation problem."

Wunsch has been one of the more hawkish ECB members for a while. He tends to favor higher rates sooner than later.

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What Markets Are Pricing In

Investors are now betting on two to three ECB hikes by the end of this year. Wunsch said he is "comfortable" with that pricing.

He is not alone in his camp. ECB chief economist Philip Lane has said the oil shock may force a hike.

Slovakia's Peter Kazimir has called a June move "all but inevitable." That gives the market a hawkish chorus from three of the council's most powerful voices.

The trade-off for investors: higher ECB rates tend to support the euro and weigh on European stocks and bonds.

They also tighten conditions for any firm that borrows in euros. That reach goes well beyond Europe.

What To Watch

The June 11 meeting is the next checkpoint. Two things will decide it.

Those are where oil prices sit, and whether wage data shows workers are starting to demand more.

If oil stays high and wages start drifting up, the ECB's hand gets forced - and a pause now would risk losing the inflation fight later.

Investors should also track ECB chief Christine Lagarde for tone shifts. She has already opened the door to a hike if the inflation overshoot lasts.

If she leans further into that view, the June call becomes a serious bet.

For euro area savers, a hike means slightly better deposit rates. For borrowers, it means tighter terms on new loans.

For euro area stocks, the impact is mixed. Banks tend to gain while growth names tend to lag.

For the euro itself, a hike tends to lift it. That can hurt euro area exports a bit.

The next ECB move may not be set by Frankfurt. It may be set by Tehran.

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