For years, a team at the University of Pennsylvania gave gloomier Social Security forecasts than the government did. This week, they flipped.
They now see the program's money lasting a little longer. But the extra time is small.
Social Security keeps a savings cushion called a trust fund. It taps that fund when payroll taxes fall short.
Payroll taxes are the money pulled straight from your paycheck. They fund the program day to day.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model ran the numbers again. It found the retirement fund runs dry in February 2033.
Add the smaller disability fund, and the combined pot lasts to February 2035. That is later than the government's June report.
The government had the money ending in the second half of 2034. Wharton used to land earlier than that.
So this is a real shift. In the model's words, the gap has closed and slightly reversed.
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Running out of money is not the same as going broke. Paychecks keep coming in, so some benefits keep going out.
Wharton expects about 86% of promised benefits could still be paid. That share then slips toward 60% by the year 2100.
Here is what that means for retirees. If only 86% of checks get paid, that is a 14% cut.
For someone living on the money, that stings. And it would kick in the moment the funds run dry.
The hard part is closing the long-term gap. And the gap Wharton sees is a bit bigger than the government's.
To balance the books, the payroll tax would need to jump from 12.4% to 17.1%. Workers and bosses would split the cost.
The other path is cutting benefits by about the same amount. Lawmakers could also mix both.
They have floated other ideas too. Those range from raising the retirement age to lifting the cap on taxed wages.
Why do the two groups land in different spots? They use different tools.
The government starts with big-picture guesses. It assumes things like wage growth and how many babies are born.
Wharton works the other way. It starts with data on real people, then lets those trends fall out of the math.
The official report shifted this year too. The government now expects fewer births and less immigration.
A new tax law also trims some money flowing to the funds. Kent Smetters of Wharton says that hit is small.
Smetters helped lead the study. His warning is blunt: wait too long, and the bill only climbs.
A few wild cards could move these dates again. New weight-loss drugs are one of them.
If people live longer, the program pays out longer. That actually adds strain.
AI is another wild card. Wharton thinks it will lift the economy, though a burst AI bubble could do the opposite.
The extra runway is real. But it is measured in months, not years.
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