Almost everyone near the talks says an Iran peace deal is nearly done. The one U.S. official in the room won't go that far.
A senior Trump official spoke on Friday. He said the U.S. and Iran could sign a deal "within the next few days."
Then came the catch. He put the odds at just 80% to 85%.
That was up from about 75% earlier that day. The reason is Iran itself.
He called it "very complicated." Splits inside its leadership could still blow up the deal.
The deal is a written promise to act later. It would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
It would also start to wind down Iran's nuclear work. That matters far past the Gulf.
About a quarter of the world's shipped oil moves through that one narrow channel. When the war flares up, traders rush to a classic safe haven, gold.
A real deal could cool that trade fast.
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If Iran follows through, the prize is money. The official said Iran would get real relief.
Old sanctions would ease. Billions in frozen funds would be set free.
That would be a lifeline for Iran's battered economy. But there's a catch.
The rewards come only if Iran does what it promised. So the deal would put inspectors inside the country to check.
The official said it would also end Iran's funding of violence in the region. He framed it as a path to lasting peace.
Allies are the harder part. Israel says it won't pull its troops from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, or part of the West Bank.
The U.S. said no country has to give up the right to defend itself.
Pakistan has played middleman for months. On Friday its prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said a "final, agreed upon text" had been reached.
He added that "peace has never been this close." Iran's foreign minister agreed.
He said a deal had "never been closer." Trump piled on too.
He said Thursday the U.S. had "just made a great settlement of the war," pending paperwork.
Think of a home sale where everyone shook hands but no one signed. Close is not the same as done.
And this war is now in its fourth month.
The holdup now is Iran's split leadership, not the words. The two sides haven't even picked a place to sign.
Reports point to Switzerland, maybe this weekend, near next week's G7 summit. A signed deal would ease the pressure that hits the markets each time the war flares up.
Eighty-five percent is close. It still isn't a signature.
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