Wall Street spent the spring wondering when the dealmaking music would start back up. Bank of America's CEO just said it already has.
CEO Brian Moynihan told a financial conference Wednesday that the bank expects trading revenue to climb 15% in the second quarter. That kind of jump usually means one of two things: either traders are crushing it, or the year-ago number was a mess.
This time it's both.
The "Liberation Quarter" Comp
The base year sets up the big number. Moynihan flagged that himself, calling last spring the "liberation quarter," a nod to the chaos that followed Trump's April 2025 global tariffs.
Most of those tariffs got struck down by the Supreme Court in February. The volatility they kicked off hit Wall Street's trading desks hard at the time.
So a 15% jump from that base isn't just a strong quarter. It's a quarter where the market is acting normal again, and where firms have moved past the early-year shock of the Iran war to push large deals back across the line.
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It's Not Just Trading
Moynihan didn't stop at trading. He said investment banking is in "pretty good shape" and wealth management revenue should rise in the low teens this quarter.
The IPO pipeline, he added, is full. That matters because Wall Street is bracing for a blockbuster debut next month from Elon Musk's SpaceX, and bankers think a wave of AI-focused IPOs could follow it.
Moynihan also said net interest income, which is the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits, could land at the top of its 6% to 8% range. BofA bumped that range from 5% to 7% just last month.
The Consumer Isn't Cracking
Underneath the dealmaking optimism is a steadier story: BofA's customers are still spending. Credit and debit card spending per household rose 4.8% in April year over year, up from 4.3% in March. Moynihan added that the job market looks healthy and consumer credit quality is holding up despite high interest rates and stubborn inflation.
What To Watch
The setup heading into Q2 earnings looks very different from where it stood a year ago. A "liberation quarter" comparison flatters the year-over-year math, but the underlying signals (dealmaking, IPOs, consumer spending) are all pointing the same way.
If next month's SpaceX listing goes the way bankers expect, the IPO pipeline number stops being a forecast and starts being a tailwind.
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