Nebius skids 10% as Q3 tops revenue views but outlook underwhelms

The quarter in numbers

Nebius said sales surged 571% in the quarter to $980.8 million, topping the $907.5 million LSEG consensus. The bottom line was a $37.5 million loss, equal to a 13 cent loss per share, versus a year-ago loss of $119.6 million, or 50 cents per share. Whether the reported per-share number can be matched against the 69 cent loss analysts projected was unclear at the time.

During the period, the company also raised $5.75 billion through new debt financing.

Guidance, capex and the finance plan

CEO Arkady Volozh, writing to shareholders, indicated Nebius is targeting the bottom of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion revenue range for fiscal 2026. That sits near FactSet's 2026 revenue estimate of $3.35 billion. Nebius also opened the books on 2027 with a revenue view of $12 billion to $13 billion, which it said reflects "a conservative approach to the pace of our build-out." FactSet's 2027 sales model stands at $12.09 billion.

Big spending is part of the story. Management now projects $27 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, above its prior $20 billion to $25 billion range and higher than FactSet's $23.85 billion expectation. For fiscal 2027, Nebius is planning $40 billion to $45 billion in capex, well ahead of FactSet's $28.77 billion estimate.

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Market reaction and the wider setup

Nebius' print followed stronger-than-expected results from fellow neoclouds CoreWeave and IREN over the past week, a combo that helped spark a Wednesday rebound across the group: CoreWeave jumped nearly 25%, Nebius rose 15%, Applied Digital gained more than 7%, and IREN advanced nearly 6%. All four names traded lower before the open on Thursday after Nebius released its Q3 update.

Financing and politics are adding noise. CoreWeave's bond yields pushed past 16% last week, and on Tuesday the company told analysts it intends to limit parent-level borrowing to less than $5 billion through 2027. At the same time, while Nebius is rushing to build additional data centers, U.S. voters last week approved dozens of ballot initiatives aimed at restraining those developments, and Democrats scored broad victories in both chambers of Congress.

The Nvidia angle and what it means for your portfolio

Another variable is Nvidia. Following reports of personal misconduct tied to CEO Jensen Huang, the Wall Street Journal said late Wednesday that Nvidia's board was preparing to remove the company's co-founder. Nvidia has been a key driver of the neocloud expansion and, according to a filing, owned roughly $329 million in Nebius stock as of the end of June.

Executives will discuss the quarter and share guidance on an 8 a.m. ET call. For investors, the mix of triple digit revenue growth, heavier capex plans for 2026 and 2027, and a cautious revenue trajectory frames the risk reward in the neocloud trade.

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