SNAP food stamp benefits could lapse Saturday for the first time due to the government shutdown.
Nearly 42 million people rely on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Neither Congress nor the USDA has acted to fund benefits beyond this weekend.
If benefits stop, it creates an immediate crisis for both recipients and the retailers who depend on that spending.
The numbers are staggering. SNAP recipients spend about $8 billion monthly at authorized retailers.
That's $96 billion annually flowing through 267,000 retailers authorized to accept food stamps, according to USDA data. About 75% of SNAP benefits get spent at supermarkets and superstores rather than smaller retailers.
"It's not only poor people who are on SNAP who are going to be affected. It means the places where they spend the money aren't going to get that money," said Marion Nestle, a professor emerita at New York University.
Food companies from Walmart to Smithfield Foods are bracing for declining sales. Reduced revenue means reduced hours for workers and potential waste as perishable inventory goes unsold.
Walmart faces the biggest hit. The retail giant captures about 26.1% of all grocery spending from SNAP, according to research firm Numerator.
With $8 billion monthly in total SNAP spending, Walmart stands to lose over $2 billion per month if benefits lapse. That's significant even for the nation's largest retailer.
Other major grocers and their suppliers face proportional losses based on their SNAP customer base.
The National Grocers Association issued a stark warning Wednesday. Congress should reopen the government and fund SNAP to avoid "serious consequences for local grocers, their employees, and the food supply chain."
"Retailers are going to be in a terrible situation here trying to manage costs and inventory," said Rob Karr, president of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association. He warned stores could see unsold perishable goods go to waste.
Grocers operate on thin margins. An $8 billion monthly revenue drop hits hard, especially for smaller regional chains without Walmart's resources.
A USDA spokesperson called the benefit lapse "an inflection point for Senate Democrats."
The agency has repeatedly blamed Democrats for the shutdown. Most Democratic senators have withheld votes on a spending bill attempting to prevent healthcare costs from spiking for many Americans.
That political standoff now threatens to cut food aid for 42 million people.
Beyond retailers, the entire food supply chain feels the impact. Food manufacturers and distributors see reduced orders from grocers anticipating lower sales.
Workers at stores and warehouses face reduced hours as traffic drops. Perishable food inventory gets wasted when anticipated SNAP purchases don't materialize.
The economic damage spreads far beyond the immediate $8 billion revenue loss.
A SNAP benefit lapse would create economic damage across the food industry while devastating millions of families.
For 42 million Americans, losing food stamp benefits means immediate hardship. For retailers and food companies, it means billions in lost sales.
Walmart losing over $2 billion monthly in SNAP-related revenue shows the program's economic importance beyond helping hungry families. It's a massive driver of grocery spending that supports jobs and supply chains.
The National Grocers Association's warning about "serious consequences" isn't hyperbole. An $8 billion monthly hole in grocery revenue forces difficult decisions about staffing, inventory, and operations.
Smaller grocers face especially tough choices. Unlike Walmart, they can't absorb the revenue loss easily. Some may cut hours dramatically or even close locations in areas heavily dependent on SNAP spending.
The perishable food waste issue matters too. Grocers stock inventory anticipating SNAP purchases. If those purchases suddenly stop, fresh produce, dairy, and meat products expire unsold.
The USDA blaming Senate Democrats while Democrats blame the shutdown politics creates a dangerous game of chicken. Meanwhile, benefits could lapse Saturday with millions of families and billions in economic activity caught in the middle.
For food companies already dealing with inflation pressures and changing consumer behavior, losing $8 billion in monthly guaranteed spending compounds existing challenges.
The shutdown affecting SNAP shows how interconnected government programs are with private sector economics. Food stamps aren't just welfare - they're economic infrastructure supporting an entire industry.
Whether Congress acts before Saturday remains uncertain. But the economic damage from even a brief lapse would be substantial and immediate for both families and businesses across the food system.