Speaking with Bloomberg Television on Monday at the Warsaw Security Forum, Keith Kellogg drew on lessons from Vietnam: you don't let an opponent enjoy safe havens. He noted Russia has previously hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure and said Kyiv should be able to strike inside Russia as it judges necessary. "Let Ukrainians do what they've been very good at," he said, adding that Russia is not winning and is simply stretching out the conflict.
Kellogg's view diverges from the US president's weekend call for Ukraine to stop air attacks on Russian refineries, a tactic that has become Kyiv's most effective way to weaken a central source of cash for Moscow's war. Kellogg - President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine up through the end of last year - dismissed Trump's recent statements - including the suggestion that Volodymyr Zelenskyy should consider stepping aside - as "noise." He said he doesn't foresee the current spat turning into a repeat of the well-known face-to-face confrontation they had in the Oval Office in February of last year.
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The latest flare-up came after Trump struck a contentious deal with Vladimir Putin that would permit Russian diesel to reach overseas buyers, with the US president aiming to curb energy costs ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Kellogg said the arrangement does not benefit Putin and is unlikely to produce any noticeable effect on the market. "He's trying to capitalize on elections coming up in the US, he's trying to capitalize on President Trump right now," Kellogg said.
"And most people see through it." He argued Putin is operating from weakness, pointing to estimates of 1.2 million to 1.5 million Russian casualties, far exceeding Soviet losses during the war in Afghanistan. "The rhetoric will kind of take care of itself," he added. "Look at what's happening on the ground."
If Kellogg is right, the diesel release into global markets is unlikely to move prices in a way you would notice, and the back-and-forth rhetoric may matter less than conditions on the battlefield. The practical takeaway for consumers: keep an eye on energy headlines, but don't be surprised if this particular deal doesn't show up at the pump.
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