Greenland is actively mapping how to become an independent country, and a commission is due to deliver its recommendations early next year. Every party in the island's parliament backs eventual independence, though they disagree on timing. Former US President Donald Trump's focus on Greenland energized parts of the movement but also made many residents more cautious about leaving Denmark quickly. That caution was reflected at the polls in March of last year: about three quarters of voters backed parties that prefer a slower approach.
Greenland, the US, and Denmark signed a security agreement last month after a bitter dispute over the Arctic territory. The pact expands US military access, allows Washington to establish new bases, and will result in two new US bases in Greenland. The deal also grants the US influence regarding any foreign military presence as well as sensitive investment decisions on the island. Greenland remains under Danish sovereignty, and the deal explicitly recognizes the Greenlandic people's right to self-determination while stating the agreement would continue even if the territory becomes independent.
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Nivi Rosing, who chairs the parliament's foreign and security policy committee and sits with the governing Inuit Ataqatigiit, said the independence work is moving ahead despite the deal. "Since forever there has been a widespread support for independence and that hasn't changed," she said at the Arctic Circle conference in Reykjavik. "No country should affect our route to independence, rush us or delay us."
Juno Berthelsen, the committee's vice chair and a lawmaker from the opposition Naleraq, called the agreement "a stepping stone" on the path to an independent Greenland that would adopt a defense arrangement similar to Iceland's. Iceland belongs to NATO, has no standing army, and relies on a bilateral defense arrangement with the US. Even so, he is wary of the deal as written because Denmark remains embedded in the defense relationship, and he argues it missed a chance to help Greenland build non-military capabilities such as a coast guard.
Two things to watch: the commission's report early next year and the start of US base construction. Together they set the political tempo and the security footprint that could shape how decisions on foreign military activity and sensitive investments get made in Greenland. If you follow assets exposed to Arctic geopolitics or policy risk, this is the roadmap to track as the island weighs its future.
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