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Goldman flips to yen-bullish, now sees 150 per dollar in a year

Nate Gregory
Published Sep 25, 2026
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Summary:
  • Goldman Sachs now expects the yen around 150 per dollar within 12 months, reversing its July bearish call.
  • Strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman cut the 12-month view to 150 from 165, and raised the 3- and 6-month targets to 158 and 155.
  • The pivot leans on quicker Bank of Japan rate hikes, a higher chance of capital flowing back into Japan, and a still-cautious near-term stance favoring EUR/JPY shorts.

What Goldman changed

Goldman has walked back the bearish stance it adopted in July and reset its outlook in a note by Karen Reichgott Fishman. In that note, Karen Reichgott Fishman reversed the firm's 12-month yen call, setting it at 150 per dollar versus 165 previously, and at the same time bumped the 3- and 6-month targets to 158 and 155, respectively.

Why the bank moved its view

Fishman pointed to a faster cadence of Bank of Japan rate increases, saying the quicker tightening is damping the inflation impulse tied to fiscal expansion and relieving some of the currency's strain. Fishman cited a quicker pace of Bank of Japan hikes, arguing it has blunted the inflation impulse from expansionary fiscal policy and reduced strain on the currency. She also highlighted a greater likelihood that domestic portfolio flows return to Japanese assets.

"Together, these developments raise the attractiveness of being long JPY, especially to protect against an onset of recession fears," Fishman wrote. While the portfolio-flow shift is still uncertain, the rising odds create "downside asymmetry" in USD/JPY, which she said makes the yen more appealing as a hedge.

Currency shifts remind savvier investors to revisit how they protect and grow savings. Join Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh on September 29th for a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, where he shows how we're spotting investment opportunities as the dollar falls. Save your spot.

The market backdrop

Goldman's change comes after Bank of America shifted its own view earlier to 149 per dollar by year end. In spot markets, the yen hit 158.28 per dollar on Friday, following comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama that US President Donald Trump expressed concerns about yen weakness in a meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Even with the medium-term upgrade, Goldman still carries a cautious tactical bias now and prefers being short EUR/JPY.

What this could mean for your money

A calm plan for your money helps you stay prepared through changing exchange conditions. Our CEO Jaspreet Singh is hosting a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, on September 29th. Sign up free to join him live.

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