Insecurity Tops Voters' Worries Ahead Of January Elections, Survey Finds

What the poll measured

SBM Intelligence canvassed 1,103 eligible voters across states that together represent about a third of Nigeria. Fieldwork wrapped on Sept. 8, and the findings landed Monday. The firm did not project a winner, but it took a clear read on issues and the candidates.

Top issues and local reactions

Security came out as the top concern. Next up was petrol prices, which climbed after President Bola Tinubu ended a long-running subsidy in May 2023. The war in Iran has piled on. About two-thirds of respondents said they want some kind of government support brought back to cushion fuel costs.

Politics and public opinion

Most respondents rated the government's response on both security and fuel prices as poor. Even so, Tinubu is widely viewed as likely to secure a second term, backed by the advantages of incumbency and a split opposition. While SBM did not call the race, respondents viewed Peter Obi most positively among the leading trio. His main rivals are Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, who placed second in 2023, and Obi, who came in third by a slim margin and currently heads the Nigeria Democratic Congress.

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Security options and what it means for voters

Since the survey closed, local media have carried fresh reports of kidnappings and killings, and vigilante groups have proliferated to fill gaps in law enforcement. Policing is currently under federal control, yet seven in ten respondents support moving that authority to the states. Backers say state-run forces could hire local officers who know the terrain. For voters sorting through the promises, the real question is whether any proposed change will make communities feel safer and household budgets less strained by rising fuel costs.

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