Confidence in Social Security Is Fading as a Funding Shortfall Approaches

A Perfect Payment Record, and a Growing Trust Gap

Social Security has paid every benefit on time for more than 90 years.

Steven Porter, 75, an Arizona retiree, depends on Social Security with his wife for basic needs. He retired at 72, having earned a living as a welder, a broadcast journalist, and a web designer.

"That would dramatically change my standard of living. But my real concern is, I think about my kids and my grandkids," he said.

His daughter Katy Porter, 41, a nurse supervisor at a Cleveland hospital trauma unit, is skeptical. "I think the majority of people in my cohort have just accepted that Social Security isn't a sustainable financial thing for us," she said.

Younger Workers Are the Most Skeptical

Among people who lack confidence, distrust in government to keep its promises is a main worry. Another 27% think the money is running out. A Gallup poll from the same period found 41% of U.S. adults doubted Social Security would be available within the next 10 years.

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Confidence usually climbs once people reach their 50s, according to a 2025 AARP analysis. That is cold comfort to Jaimee Listokin, 52, a Florida actress whose income comes from multiple gigs: personal training, brand ambassadorship, and insurance sales. She moved in with her parents about 5 years ago and pays rent to help them. Asked if Social Security would support her in retirement, she answered, "Absolutely not."

Cheryl Blackwell, 67, who lives in central New Jersey, intends to start collecting Social Security this year. She fears getting less than her full earned benefit.

Ali Tischler, 42, a single mother who runs a sleep laboratory in Amherst, Ohio, is saving in a 401(k) and a college fund for her teenage daughter. "I'm not getting it back," she said of the Social Security payroll deductions.

Congress Has Fixed This Before

This is not the first shortfall. In 1983, lawmakers approved a gradual increase in the age for full retirement benefits, from 65 to 67. They also accelerated a planned payroll tax increase and taxed some Social Security income. That fix kept the program able to pay full benefits for about 50 years.

In 2005, President George W. Bush proposed diverting payroll tax revenue into private accounts and warned Social Security was "headed toward bankruptcy." The plan failed amid opposition from AARP and others.

A 2026 AARP poll found 39% of adults believed benefits would stop entirely if the trust funds ran short. Only 23% knew payments would continue at reduced levels. Eric Kingson, professor emeritus at Syracuse University, says efforts to erode public confidence in Social Security have been organized and ongoing since the 1980s.

Karthik Manickam of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis at the New School says the lack of real public debate makes collapse seem like a done deal even though Congress has workable options. Stephen Nuñez of the Roosevelt Institute expects a fix before the crisis.

Bill Sweeney, AARP senior vice president for government affairs, points to political reality: "You can say a lot of unflattering things about Congress, but lawmakers have a finely tuned instinct for their own reelections. Letting Social Security run out of money or letting benefits be cut across the board would be the end of their careers."

AARP will hold a telephone town hall on defending Social Security at 1 p.m. ET on June 23, 2026. The call-in number is (855) 274-9507, and a Facebook livestream will be available.

For people decades from retirement, the uncertainty is the point. Social Security may survive, but the benefit they collect could look different from what their parents get. That is why so many younger workers are planning as if it will not be there, and why the program's future is really a question about whether the next generation can retire with dignity.

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