Social Security's combined trust funds are projected to run dry by 2034, triggering a 24% benefit cut.
Once it hits empty, everyone collecting retirement benefits would face a 24% cut unless lawmakers change the rules first.
This is not a surprise. Lawmakers have known about the shortfall for more than 30 years.
The combined trust funds, which also cover disability, are on track to run out in 2034.
Back in the 1990s, two ideas were on the table. The first was removing the payroll tax earnings cap, the ceiling on how much of your pay gets taxed for Social Security.
Right now that tax rate is 12.4%, and it applies only to the first $184,500 you earn.
If lawmakers had lifted the cap back then, it would have closed 120% of the funding gap on its own.
That would have pushed the date the fund runs out to 2094.
The second idea, progressive price indexing, would have changed how future benefits grow for higher earners while protecting lower earners. It would have closed 105% of the gap on its own and prevented the fund from running dry entirely.
Those two fixes together would have closed 225% of the gap.
That was the easy window, and it closed a long time ago.
Today the math is different. Removing the earnings cap now closes only 65% of the gap.
That fix pushes the date the fund runs out to 2055.
Progressive price indexing is even weaker. It closes 50% of the gap today.
It delays the date the fund runs out by roughly one week.
Together, the two measures still close 110% of the gap, which would put the program back on solid footing.
Recent legislation has made the program's finances worse, so the window keeps shrinking.
The version of progressive price indexing in the latest report would add a new bend point at the 30th percentile of earnings.
A bend point is a threshold in the formula that decides your monthly benefit. The proposal would split the current 32% benefit factor into two parts.
It would reduce the upper 32% factor each year.
It would also reduce the 15% factor each year.
The 90% factor would stay unchanged.
The lower 32% factor would stay unchanged.
The report also shows what happens if lawmakers wait until the trust funds hit empty in 2034.
Even using both measures together would only delay the date the fund runs out by 6 months.
Every year of delay forces larger and faster changes, and the fix that once closed 120% of the gap on its own is weaker now.
The numbers come from the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report, with adjustments for the One Big Bill Act.
If you are decades from retirement, this is the math that decides whether your future check is whole.
Social Security's funding comes from a 12.4% payroll tax on salaries up to $184,500. That money goes into the trust funds that pay retirement and disability benefits. The same tax already appears on your paycheck, so your future check depends on what lawmakers do next.
Social Security has faced projected shortfalls since the early 1980s, when a major reform raised the retirement age and taxed benefits for higher earners. Those changes were meant to build a large surplus for the baby-boom generation's retirement. But that surplus has been drawn down faster than expected, partly because of rising life expectancy and slower wage growth.
The 2025 Trustees Report shows the program's long-term deficit stands at 3.5% of taxable payroll, meaning the gap will only widen as more workers retire and fewer are left to pay in. Without action, the trust fund's depletion date becomes a hard deadline for every future retiree.