The cars are shiny, the paddock is packed, and the money is flowing. Monterey Car Week kicks off Thursday, and the auction houses are expecting something they have never seen before: a half-billion-dollar week.
Hagerty, the company that tracks collector car values, projects the auctions taking place this week will bring in between $470 million and $500 million. That could exceed the previous yearly best of $471 million from 2022 and extend a recovery from the slow 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Millennials and Gen Z have taken over as the dominant buying group, and they are chasing a very different kind of car than their parents did.
Instead of the 1950s and 1960s classics that used to dominate Monterey's top sellers, these buyers want the supercars they dreamed about growing up. We are talking Ferrari F40s, F50s and Enzos, Bugatti Veyrons, Ruf Yellowbirds, Koenigseggs and Paganis. Many of these cars have roughly doubled in price over the last two years.
The numbers tell the story. Hagerty's Blue Chip Index, which tracks traditional collector cars, fell 2% in the past 12 months. Its Supercar Index rose 30% in the same period. That is a massive gap, and it shows up in the auction results.
In March, a black 2003 Enzo brought $15.2 million at Broad Arrow's Amelia Island auction. A 2005 Porsche Carrera GT fetched $6.7 million, more than double its old auction record.
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Hagerty CEO McKeel Hagerty summed up the mood simply: "All roads lead to Maranello." That is the home of Ferrari, and the data backs him up. Nine of the top 10 auction sales so far this year are Ferraris, and five of Monterey's top lots this week are also Ferraris.
The old guard is not going quietly, but it is going. Last year, a 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider Competizione was expected to be the top seller at Monterey with a $20 million estimate. It ended up selling for $25.3 million, which sounds great until you see what happened next.
The highest price at Monterey last year was $26 million for a brand-new 2025 Ferrari Daytona SP3. That car was expected to sell for about $3.5 million. It went for more than seven times its estimate, and it was not even a classic. It was a current model.
This year, RM Sotheby's expects the top lot to be a 1996 McLaren F1 GTR at about $35 million. A 2023 Ferrari Daytona SP3, estimated above $10 million, could crack the top 10. Gooding Christie's is offering a 1963 Ferrari 250 P with a $15 million estimate and a 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Berlinetta Competizione with an $8 million estimate.
The catch: not everyone thinks these prices make sense. Simon Kidston, a classic car dealer and advisor, sees trouble brewing. "There is a huge amount of speculation in that part of the market," he said. "It's been very frothy and created some inexplicable price imbalances to anyone who has long-term experience in the market."
If you own a modern supercar, you are probably feeling pretty good right now. If you are thinking about buying one, the math gets trickier.
Some industry veterans warn that modern supercar prices are unsustainable. They point to traditional metrics like proven race histories, scarcity, lasting value and worldwide appeal, and they argue today's hot cars do not measure up.
But there is another side. A black 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 recently went to a 35-year-old tech founder who called it his dream car. Kidston told the story with a note of hope: "He said to me, 'This is my dream car.'"
"It's great to see new people coming into this market and loving these cars," Kidston added. "And some actually want to drive them."
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