The dispute has been building for months, with strikes and counterstrikes pushing Gulf shipping to the edge of collapse.
Days after President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran and said the broad terms of a deal had essentially been settled, Iranian officials denied that any talks were happening.
Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, summed up the whiplash on X: "Massive attack coming … wait, never mind, they want to negotiate. That's theater diplomacy on loop," he wrote.
Trump also jumped into the debate over whether the war had drained American ammunition supplies. On Truth Social on Thursday, he denied reports that the war had drained American ammo supplies.
He wrote, "The U.S. has massive amounts of 'munitions,' especially of certain types," and he threatened leakers with "long-term jail sentences." CNN later reported that he conceded in the Oval Office that some munitions were "tighter," but insisted less-advanced weapons were nearly unlimited.
The danger is spreading beyond Iran's own borders. Gulf energy facilities and the major shipping routes around them are under threat again.
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A Saudi official told CNN that Saudi Arabia is preparing for coordinated attacks by Iraqi militia groups working with Iran-backed Houthis, with intelligence linking the planned strikes to Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
A day earlier, the Houthis said they had struck two Saudi-owned crude carriers in the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia has already come under Houthi missile and drone fire, along with drone strikes from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
New shipping data from Kpler is showing the standoff in real time.
The Bab el-Mandeb, another key route for oil shipments, also lost traffic. Only 1 dry bulk carrier moved through. The day before, 20 vessels moved through that waterway.
Even with a framework between Oman and Iran to manage the waterway, ship movements through Hormuz probably won't get back to prewar levels quickly.
On Thursday, the Iranian news agency Fars reported a draft plan that would keep U.S. and Israeli ships out of Hormuz and block vessels from countries that have harmed Iran until compensation is paid.
Under that draft, Iran could fine violators as much as 20% of cargo value. Officials are still reviewing it.
Regional officials earlier said Iran and Oman were near a framework that would route inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic closer to Oman. That kind of arrangement would not automatically reopen the strait.
Oil prices turned around as Iran's position on Hormuz hardened. They had dropped earlier on hopes that a deal was near, but that optimism faded.
The empty shipping lanes matter well beyond commodity markets. When a route like Hormuz is running nearly empty, the cost of moving oil climbs, and that pressure eventually shows up at the gas pump and in your home heating bill.
If you own energy stocks, the oil price is a direct line to your portfolio. If you do not, the same line shows up in your monthly bills.
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