Russian crude exports just had their lowest level since mid-June. Seaborne shipments averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the four weeks through Aug. 2.
That is the first time the number has dipped below 4 million barrels a day in six weeks. It lines up with a change in Ukraine's drone strategy: in the second half of July, strikes went after tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov and warehouses in western Russia, not refineries.
Last week, the attacks came back. Strikes hit Rosneft's Ryazan plant, which had just restarted after roughly two months offline following a May attack.
Attacks also targeted Lukoil's 300,000-barrel-a-day Volgograd plant, a Ufa complex where Bashneft runs three refineries, and Rosneft's Saratov facility.
Security worries are still shaping port activity. Novorossiysk loadings stayed around half their recent peak, and only one tanker loaded at Murmansk, likely because of scheduling.
In the week ending Aug. 2, Russian crude loaded on 35 vessels totaled 24.61 million barrels.
The prior week was revised to 29.47 million barrels loaded onto 40 vessels.
The week ending Aug. 2 averaged 3.52 million barrels a day.
That was down from a revised 4.21 million a week earlier.
Even with the recent dip, Russia is still exporting a lot of crude. Year-to-date flows average 3.63 million barrels a day.
That is roughly 300,000 barrels a day above last year's full-year average. That pace is also higher than every annual average since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
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During 2023, Russia redirected approximately 500,000 barrels per day of pipeline crude formerly destined for Europe into seaborne exports.
Russian crude at sea fell to about 120 million barrels in the week through Aug. 2.
Indian arrivals held near June's roughly 2.4 million-barrel-a-day record through July.
Roughly 30 Arctic crude cargoes from Russia have sat idle this year near the Riau archipelago, east of Singapore.
Five Urals cargoes sat anchored off Egypt's Mersa el-Hamra. Unloading waits there now run about a month-and-a-half, versus less than a week early in the year.
In the 28 days through Aug. 2, Asian-bound flows, including cargoes with no declared destination, fell to 3.62 million barrels daily, versus a revised 3.76 million during the period ending July 26.
China-bound flows were nearly flat at 1.25 million barrels a day, compared with a revised 1.23 million in the previous four weeks.
India-bound volume was about 800,000 barrels a day, down from 1.15 million, but likely to be revised above 2 million once recent sailings arrive.
About 1.58 million barrels a day were on ships with no final destination, including 1.55 million from western and Pacific ports and 30,000 with no destination signaled.
Turkey-bound volume dropped to roughly 180,000 barrels daily from a revised 210,000.
Syria flows were about 40,000 barrels a day, unchanged, though those numbers often get revised because Syria-bound tankers hide their positions and vanish from tracking south of Crete until they near Baniyas.
Prices were moving the other way. Urals, Russia's main export grade, rose almost $6 a barrel on a four-week average basis.
According to Argus Media's daily prices, gains showed up across the board:
The dollar value of the exports shows what that price strength was worth. Over the 28 days through Aug. 2, Russia's crude exports brought in an average of $1.69 billion per week.
That was up $60 million from the period ending July 26, because higher crude prices offset lower volumes.
The value of those exports fell by roughly $410 million in the week ending Aug. 2, leaving the weekly total at $1.67 billion.
If volumes keep sliding and refinery attacks keep coming, that balance could shift. The next weekly update is set for Aug. 11.
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