The IPO market has been mostly frozen for two years.
That isn't stopping the parent of Dunkin' from trying to crack it open with one of the biggest restaurant offerings ever filed.
Inspire Brands quietly filed paperwork with the SEC on Friday, with the filing kept confidential - meaning no financial details are public yet.
Inspire is the chain behind Dunkin', Arby's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sonic Drive-In, Jimmy John's, and Baskin Robbins, and Roark Capital - the private equity firm that owns it - is reportedly seeking a $20 billion valuation.
That would make this one of the biggest restaurant IPOs ever, with Inspire saying part of the cash raised would go toward paying down debt.
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Think of Inspire as the restaurant version of a private equity rollup - you buy the brands fast, run them as one, and eventually take the package public.
Arby's and Buffalo Wild Wings merged in 2018 to start the company, with Sonic added later that year and Jimmy John's following in 2019.
Then in 2020, Roark added Dunkin' and Baskin Robbins to the portfolio in an $11 billion buyout that turned Inspire into a giant.
Today the company runs more than 33,300 locations worldwide and brought in $33.4 billion in sales last year.
Restaurant IPOs at this scale are rare - Restaurant Brands International (the parent of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes) is currently worth around $36 billion, which puts Inspire's target in the same neighborhood.
Inspire's lineup skews quick-service - the kind of fast, low-priced food that tends to hold up better than full-service chains when consumers cut back. That's a useful pitch heading into a wobbly economy.
The catch: some of those brands are dealing with their own challenges. Dunkin' faces nonstop pressure from Starbucks and convenience-store coffee, and Buffalo Wild Wings has been closing struggling stores for years.
Roark will need to convince investors that the package is worth more than the parts.
Restaurant chains usually don't lead an IPO comeback, and the market has been quiet for nearly two years with a backlog of companies waiting for the right window to list.
That window may be cracking open. Sandwich chain Jersey Mike's filed confidentially in April at a reported $12 billion valuation, and SpaceX confidentially filed last month at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation.
For Inspire, going public during a frozen window is a signal that it expects the IPO calendar to thaw.
Confidential filings let companies prep without showing investors the financials yet, and Inspire could make its filing public in the coming months once it's ready to actually price the deal.
The timing and the valuation will tell us how much investor interest there is for a restaurant chain that owns a doughnut, a wing chain, and a sandwich brand all at once.
If $20 billion sticks, the IPO door is back open.
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