Brent slips under $90 as Trump talks up a near-term end to Iran conflict

What moved oil

Global benchmark Brent fell back through $90, a level not seen since August, after comments from President Trump stoked hopes of winding down Washington's roughly nine-month confrontation with Iran. By 5:33 a.m. ET, Brent was down 2.65% at $90.14, with January-dated contracts slipping under $90 earlier in the day.

U.S. crude tracked lower too, with WTI off 2.4% to $84.78. Market boards alongside the figures showed ICE Brent Crude (Jan′27) last at 89.51, a decline of 3.06 (3.31%) at 3:14 PM BST, and WTI Crude (Dec′26) last at 84.47, lower by 2.38 (2.74%) at 9:14 AM EST, with both quotes flagged as delayed and denominated in dollars.

At the White House, the comments followed a meeting between Trump and Qatar's head of government, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. "We're seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it's going to be ending fairly soon," Trump said, noting Iran was "talking very politely," and telling reporters, "Iran militarily is effectively over."

Trump also wrote on Truth Social that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait would "prefer the status quo," which he described as keeping a naval blockade on Iran and blocking overland routes for advanced weapons and other materials.

Signals, risks, and the Strait of Hormuz

Throughout the year, oil prices have swung on shifts perceived in the conflict pitting the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Brent started near $60 in January, spiked as high as $130 during March and April as strikes intensified, eased in June and July, then pushed back toward those highs as the conflict looked entrenched.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz - the region's vital oil chokepoint - have mostly bounced back. Even so, consumers have worn the whiplash. Additional hotspots - such as the Houthis striking targets in Saudi Arabia and the Russia Ukraine war - have worsened the refining-capacity shortfall, pushing up diesel, gasoline and jet fuel prices.

Hostile rhetoric has persisted, especially around who calls the shots in the Strait. The U.S. largely paused military action after September, and Trump said in early October that operations would wait until after the midterms. The U.S. later conducted what Trump labeled "minor strikes" on Iran following reports that two missiles hit Qeshm Island near the strait.

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What pros are watching

Post election, analysts split on the administration's next steps after Democrats' sweeping midterm wins, even as price action hinted at hopes for de escalation. ING's Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson wrote Tuesday: "The market has continued to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium built into prices in recent weeks as expectations grow that the conflict between the US and Iran could move towards de-escalation."

They added: "Signs that regional oil flows are recovering have added to the downward pressure... Reports that Iran may be softening its position on control of the Strait of Hormuz have also reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to one of the world's most important oil transit routes." Their caution: "For now, the return of more Gulf barrels and the prospect of easing tensions are taking some of the geopolitical premium out of crude. However, with regional negotiations still uncertain and infrastructure risks persisting, we expect oil prices to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East."

Not everyone buys the peace narrative. Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of consultancy FGE, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that the gap between Washington and Tehran is too wide to bridge. He said the U.S. wants "all the nuclear material, enriched material, to be transferred out of Iran," and argued there is "no way" Iran would accept that or allow the Strait of Hormuz to return to freely flowing oil as before the war.

His bottom line: "Trump has to decide. Either he says, 'I declare victory and walk away,' or he goes to war. If he goes to war, he's got only a window of two weeks from today for himself and for [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu, or there will be no war at all on a long-term basis."

Politics are shifting in Israel too. Benjamin Netanyahu's party fell short of a majority in last month's election, and rival Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief, was formally asked on Sunday to form a government.

What this means for your portfolio

In plain English: oil is trading the odds of de escalation versus disruption. More barrels returning from the Gulf and calmer talk can lean prices lower, but uncertain talks and vulnerable infrastructure keep headline risk high. That mix has already pushed refined fuel prices up this year, and it has filtered across sectors sensitive to energy, from airlines to chemicals.

U.S. politics remain part of the equation. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have said voter frustration with the Iran war and with high energy costs contributed to Republicans' bruising midterm outcome last week. That backdrop could influence policy choices that move crude, and by extension, energy stocks, inflation expectations and rate sensitive corners of your portfolio.

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