Italy's lower house signed off on an electoral redesign Thursday, ending months of wrangling with a 227-164 vote. The plan shifts parliamentary seats to a proportional system and adds bonus seats for any coalition that surpasses 42% of the vote; however, those extra seats are granted only when the same coalition or party reaches 42% in both chambers. Next stop is President Sergio Mattarella's desk, and legal challenges could be filed with Italy's Constitutional Court.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni began pushing the revamp last year amid warnings she could lose key first-past-the-post Senate races in the 2027 general election. The right flank has since gotten busier. Roberto Vannacci, a former army general who now leads National Future, has scrambled the calculus around whether the changes help Meloni.
To get to 42%, she'd likely have to reclaim portions of Vannacci's base or enter into an alliance with his ultranationalist party, a move she has resisted to date. As of Oct. 7, Youtrend for Agenzia Giornalistica Italia measured National Future at 7.7% nationwide, which placed it as the right's second-largest party.
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The months-long march to approval exposed cracks inside Meloni's coalition. In July, the governing partners suffered an unforeseen defeat on an amendment related to the bill. Since then, the whips tightened ranks and the government secured three confidence votes this week. Meloni's camp had indicated that a defeat on Thursday would likely have led her to seek Parliament's dissolution.
Backers say the reset will make outcomes clearer for voters.
"Whoever wins will govern. And whoever loses will go into opposition. Enough with majorities cobbled together unbeknown to voters," said Stefano Benigni of Forza Italia.
He added, "The rules we present today will be valid for everyone, even for you." Critics call it a power-preserving move after a failed referendum earlier this year. "Ever since your government lost the referendum on justice reform, the sole concern of Giorgia Meloni has been to ensure she can return to Palazzo Chigi," said Maria Elena Boschi of Italia Viva.
Election mechanics can shape who writes the rules and how quickly they get through. This reform aims to reduce gridlock, but the bonus only kicks in if the same coalition or party is above 42% in both houses, the right remains divided, and court fights may still pop up. If you follow Italy for risk, watch whether parties rally into a single bloc and how soon the changes clear their final hurdles. That will tell you if the country is heading toward steadier policymaking or another round of coalition chess.
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