Strategy Inc. Down 75% Over Past Year, Analysts Bet on 170% Rebound

The Stock That Keeps Falling - And Why Analysts Aren't Running Away

Michael Saylor's company used to have a simple pitch: buy Bitcoin, hold Bitcoin, and let the stock ride up with it. That worked great when Bitcoin was soaring. But then the company changed its approach.

Strategy Inc. started actively selling some of its Bitcoin holdings and tinkering with its balance sheet to meet future obligations. At the same time, Bitcoin took a hit - it now trades at about $66,000, roughly half of its all-time high from late 2025.

The result has been brutal for shareholders. That is the kind of number that usually makes investors run for the exits.

Why the Bull Case Survives a 75% Drop

The analysts have a logic, even if it feels stretched right now. They expect two things to happen: Bitcoin's price will eventually recover, and Michael Saylor will keep finding fresh money to pour into the strategy.

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TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza put it plainly. "I feel really confident that two years, five years from now, Bitcoin is going to be hundreds of thousands of dollars - but it's not going to be a straight, smooth, steady line," he said. That long-term bet on Bitcoin is the backbone of the buy ratings.

The other piece is the funding machine. Saylor has been issuing preferred shares, a hybrid investment that ranks between common equity and debt in the risk spectrum, and he notes that 80% of these "Stretch" preferred shares were purchased by retail investors via the company's at-the-market program. If interest rates eventually fall next year making Bitcoin more attractive, the whole thesis could work again.

But not everyone is buying it. According to Adam McCarthy, the research lead at crypto analytics firm LO:TECH, predicting the stock will more than double from here "seems kind of way out of whack with reality." He pointed out that if you price the stock like a bank analyst, you are betting that retail buyers stay steady and that cheaper money next year brings Bitcoin back.

The Catch: Targets That Might Be Stale

There is a reason the numbers look so extreme. The consensus target of $460 at the start of 2026 has now been slashed to $275 after the stock cratered. But even that new target may not mean much. Many analyst price targets have not been updated in a while, and the gap between where the stock is and where analysts say it will go partly reflects how fast it dropped - not a fresh vote of confidence.

Of the 11 analysts who have recently updated their views, 9 still rate the stock a buy. One says neutral, one says short. Their price targets range from $130 all the way up to more than $500.

The Core Gamble

The wide divergence between the stock's current price and analyst targets underscores the speculative nature of the investment. While Bitcoin has historically recovered from downturns, Strategy Inc.'s active balance sheet management introduces new risks. Investors are essentially betting that Saylor's ability to raise capital from retail investors will persist, allowing the company to weather the storm until Bitcoin rebounds.

The bottom line: This is not a simple story of a beaten-down stock that will bounce back in a straight line. It is a bet on two wobbly things: a Bitcoin recovery and a steady stream of retail money. If both happen, the upside is massive. If either one falters, the stock could keep falling.

For investors, the question is not whether analysts are right or wrong. It is whether you believe the same things they do. Bitcoin could go to hundreds of thousands of dollars years from now. But as Vitanza said, it will not be a straight line - and the ride down is already a painful reminder.

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