For years, Wolfe Research told its clients to stay away from Palantir, with the growth real but the price insane - and this week, Wolfe quietly stopped saying that.
They are still not telling anyone to buy. They just will not tell them to sell anymore.
On Tuesday, June 16, Wolfe analysts Alex Zukin and Joshua Tilton lifted their rating on Palantir (PLTR) to Peer Perform from Underperform, which is Wall Street code for "we do not have a strong opinion anymore."
Zukin framed the shift in plain English, writing that Palantir is not "too big to fail," but it has become "too big to ignore."
His numbers behind the call:
Zukin's base case is 39% revenue growth every year through 2029, and his bull case is 55%.
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The catch is price. Palantir trades at about 151 times earnings, which makes it the priciest name in software - and even Zukin's bull case is already baked into the stock.
Wall Street is split, with Bank of America's Mariana Perez Mora at the highest target of $255, Jefferies' Brent Thill at the lowest of $70, UBS at $200, and HSBC downgrading to hold in May citing rising AI competition.
The bull thesis is Ontology - Palantir's database layer that connects AI outputs to the actual workflows inside a customer's business through its Foundry and Gotham platforms.
Zukin said Ontology bookings have picked up speed in 2026, which is making the platform harder for big customers to rip out.
None of this has shown up in the share price, with PLTR falling 2% on Tuesday to $131.94 even with the upgrade in hand.
The stock is down 26% so far in 2026 and 16% in June alone, while the S&P 500 is up about 10% on the year and the Nasdaq is up around 14%.
Palantir, the most-discussed AI software stock of 2025, is the loudest underperformer of 2026.
The next test lands August 3, when Palantir reports earnings, and management is expected to guide for roughly 80% revenue growth in the quarter - slightly slower than Q1's 85% pace.
Three things to track between now and then:
The bears are walking away. The buyers have not shown up yet.
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