Stable Pricing in the Used Vehicle Market

According to Cox Automotive, wholesale prices for used vehicles are expected to rise by 2% by the end of 2026. This prediction comes from their Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices at U.S. wholesale auctions.

This year's projected increase marks a return to a historically stable rate after fluctuations in recent years.

Recent Trends in Used Vehicle Prices

In the past two years, used vehicle prices increased by 0.4% each year. This follows notable declines of 7% in 2023 and nearly 15% in 2022.

The price drops in these years were a correction from the inflated prices seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, when prices surged by 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020.

Understanding Historical Price Increases

The average increase in used vehicle prices at the end of each year is roughly 2%, according to Cox data stretching back to 1998.

This average does not include the unusual spikes seen in 2021 and 2022. Despite the expected rise in prices, they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Sales Forecast for 2026

In 2026, used vehicle sales are anticipated to decline by 0.9% year-over-year, reaching a total of 38.3 million units sold.

This forecast includes about 20.3 million retail sales, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.7%.

Market Outlook and Consumer Impact

Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive's interim chief economist, noted that several positive indicators could lead to stronger demand in the auto market as 2026 unfolds.

Falling new and used auto loan rates have reached their lowest levels in a year. Additionally, consumers can expect increased tax refunds, which may positively influence their purchasing decisions.