Michelle Bowman - long considered one of the toughest voices on the Federal Open Market Committee - told Fox Business on Friday that she wants to see three quarter-point cuts before this year is over.
The reason? Jobs.
The Hiring Picture Is Getting Harder to Ignore
February's employment numbers came in worse than Wall Street expected.
The economy didn't just slow down on hiring - it went backward, losing 92,000 positions.
Bowman called the February report "really disappointing."
She isn't buying the idea that AI is behind the weakness either.
Businesses she talks to aren't swapping workers for software - they're using new tools to make existing teams more productive.
If the job losses were tech-driven, rate cuts wouldn't fix them, accoridnt to Bowman.
But if companies are just sitting on their hands waiting for clarity on the economy, cheaper borrowing costs could get them hiring again.
The Rest of the Fed Isn't as Aggressive
Bowman's three-cut outlook puts her well ahead of most of the rest of the Fed. The committee's median forecast only calls for a single 25-basis-point cut - that's a quarter of a percentage point - for the rest of 2026, with one more in 2027.
It suggests there's real disagreement inside the Fed about how much the job market actually needs help right now.
GDP growth is also on the Fed’s mind.
The economy grew at a 4.4% pace in Q3 last year, then nearly stalled out in Q4 at just 0.7% after a government shutdown dragged things down.
Bowman expects a bounce back in Q1, and she still sees strong growth ahead thanks to last year's 75 basis points of cuts working their way through the system.
What to Watch
The Iran conflict is the wildcard nobody at the Fed wants to price in yet.
Bowman, like Chair Jerome Powell, said it's too soon to know how the war will reshape the economic picture.
