A bigger paycheck is supposed to be good news. In Poland, it has come with a tax surprise for millions of workers.
The country relies on two personal income tax rates. You pay 12% on earnings up to a set cutoff.
The rate on everything above the cutoff jumps to 32%. A bracket is simply the range of income that gets taxed at a certain rate.
When wages rise quickly, more people cross it.
Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said the government is working on a change. "We are working to make this possible before the end of this term," he said Tuesday on RMF24 radio.
Poland's general election is next year, and it is expected to be close. Most polls say the governing coalition probably will not win enough seats to keep its majority.
The opposition is splintering. Mateusz Morawiecki, the former prime minister, left Law & Justice, the largest opposition party, along with several other lawmakers, and one Ibris poll puts his breakaway group at 7.8% if an election were held now.
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Far-right parties are gaining ground too. That leaves the political map crowded and uncertain.
A tax break aimed at millions of voters is an easy promise to announce. Domanski says the finance ministry will work out the details in the coming weeks while drafting next year's budget.
Tax relief has a price, and this one is steep. How the government would fund it is unclear.
Poland's budget is already stretched thin. A deficit above 7% of GDP would be the largest shortfall in the European Union.
Heavy military spending is a big part of the reason. With the military build-up already eating into revenue, a tax cut would force the government to choose between deeper borrowing and spending reductions elsewhere. That is the trade-off Domanski and the finance ministry will be weighing as they draft the budget.
The rating agencies have noticed. Moody's and Fitch both said in recent months that they may cut Poland's credit rating if the deficit and public-debt growth are not brought under control.
A credit rating is a score of how safe it is to lend to a country. A downgrade means lenders see more risk, and the government usually pays more to borrow.
Fitch's next review lands on Aug. 21.
The politics and the money pull in opposite directions. A popular tax cut could deepen the budget hole just as rating agencies are threatening to downgrade the country.
A downgrade can push bond prices down and weigh on the zloty. That matters if your portfolio holds Polish or European assets.
For investors, the next few weeks matter as much as the election result. The budget talks and Fitch's review will tell you a lot about the direction of the country.
You do not need to track every twist in Polish politics. But a country that is likely to run the EU's largest deficit, with a fragmented election race and a possible tax cut, is worth watching if your portfolio has exposure to the region.
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