Mortgage rates just jumped to their highest level in over three weeks.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.33% on October 30. That's up from 6.13% before the Fed's latest meeting - a move in the wrong direction for hopeful homebuyers.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point on October 29, bringing it to 3.75%-4%. That should have been good news for mortgages. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw a curveball.
In his press conference, Powell said a December rate cut "is not a foregone conclusion." Markets had been expecting another cut. Powell's comments immediately sent mortgage rates higher.
Before Powell spoke, markets were extremely confident about a December rate cut.
The CME Fed Watch tool tracks the probability of rate moves at each Fed meeting. A week ago, it showed a 91.1% chance of a December cut. Right after Powell's comments, that dropped to 66.6%. Now it's hovering around 73%.
That's still a majority expecting a cut. But the sudden drop from over 90% probability spooked investors and pushed rates higher.
Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer at loanDepot, said Powell's tone "poured some cold water on hopes for a faster pace of cuts, coming in less friendly than anticipated."
There's a frustrating pattern emerging for homebuyers.
Before the Fed's September rate cut, mortgage rates fell to 6.13% in anticipation. Once the Fed actually cut rates, mortgages went up instead of down.
The same thing is happening now. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate in late October. Mortgage rates responded by climbing.
In fact, even though the Fed has cut rates by a full percentage point over several meetings in late 2024, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction - rising nearly a point, according to Bankrate.
Here's the confusing part: Fed rate cuts don't automatically mean lower mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are more directly tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves based on inflation expectations and economic outlook. When the Fed cuts rates but signals it won't keep cutting aggressively, that can actually push mortgage rates higher.
Powell essentially told markets: "We're cutting, but don't expect us to keep cutting rapidly." That removed some of the optimism that had been baked into mortgage rates.
BOK Financial predicts mortgage rates may ease slightly to around 5.9% to 6.0%.
What could drive rates lower? Cooler inflation and a slower labor market. Both would give the Fed more confidence to keep cutting rates, which would eventually help mortgages.
DerGurahian pointed out that despite the recent jump, mortgage rates still hover near annual lows. At 6.33%, they're well below the 7%+ levels seen earlier in the year.
If you've been waiting for rates to drop before buying, this is frustrating news.
Rates were trending down toward 6% just days ago. Now they're back above 6.3% and the path to lower rates looks less certain.
The December rate cut that seemed like a sure thing now has only about 73% odds. If the Fed doesn't cut in December, mortgage rates could stay elevated or even climb higher.
For buyers on the fence, the calculus is tricky. Waiting for lower rates makes sense in theory. But if rates don't drop much further - or actually rise - you're losing time in a market where home prices keep climbing.
Mortgage rates are acting independently from Fed rate cuts, and that's confusing for everyone watching.
The Fed has cut its benchmark rate a full point since late 2024. Yet mortgage rates have actually risen during that period. Powell's latest comments suggest the Fed is slowing down its cutting pace, which pushed mortgage rates even higher.
For the housing market, this creates a challenging environment. Rates around 6.3% aren't terrible historically, but they're high enough to keep many buyers on the sidelines. Combined with elevated home prices, affordability remains squeezed.
The good news? Rates are still near their yearly lows. The bad news? They're moving in the wrong direction and may not drop as much as buyers hoped.
If you're planning to buy a home, don't count on rates falling dramatically in the near term. The Fed is being cautious about future cuts, and that caution is keeping mortgage rates elevated. Lock in a rate if you find a home you like - waiting for significantly lower rates could mean waiting a long time.
