Buyers who've been waiting on cheaper mortgages have a problem - Fannie Mae just pushed the date back. The May Housing Forecast from the agency that backs most of the country's home loans now keeps the 30-year fixed mortgage rate higher for longer, with the 6.1% line dropping off the calendar for two more years.
Fannie Mae's April forecast had the 30-year fixed rate at 6.3% in Q2 2026, drifting to 6.2% in Q3 and landing at 6.1% for the rest of 2026 and all of 2027.
The May forecast is firmer. Fannie Mae now sees the rate holding at 6.3% through Q1 2027, then inching down to 6.2% for the rest of 2027 - the 6.1% line never gets crossed.
Mortgage rates have been parked in the 6.3% range for weeks per Freddie Mac data, and Fannie Mae's models lean on that recent reality. The May numbers use the April 30 rate snapshot as their base, which is why last month's forecast had rates stepping down each quarter, while this month's keeps them mostly flat.
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The bigger problem might be on the supply side. Fannie Mae's new home building outlook is now a mixed bag - April expected a 4.2% drop in single-family construction in 2026 and a 2.7% rebound in 2027, but the May forecast sees a smaller 2.4% drop this year and only a 0.4% bump next year.
Net it out and Fannie Mae now sees fewer new homes by the end of 2027 than it did a month ago. Fewer new homes usually means more buyers chasing the houses already for sale, and that usually means higher prices.
The spring market has already shown the strain. April was the first month of 2026 when annual home listings outpaced sales, and home sale price gains hit their fastest pace in 13 months.
Mortgage rates themselves spiked in early March after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, and have bounced in a tight range ever since.
The forecast lands at a moment when rates have barely moved in weeks, which means buyers waiting on cheaper mortgages have a longer wait than April's forecast suggested. A home bought today at 6.3% can be paid off, sold, or refinanced later if rates do fall - the buyers who can't carry today's rate are stuck in line.
Fannie Mae's next monthly forecast is expected in June, using the May rate data as its base. If rates climb again before then, the floor could move up, and if they fall, the May read could prove too firm.
Until the next update, the 6.3% range looks like the new floor.
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