The Report

Intel shares rose more than 8% Friday after analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said the chipmaker could become a foundry supplier for upcoming generations of Apple's M-series processors.

In a post on X, Kuo wrote that industry checks suggest visibility on Intel supplying advanced-node chips for Apple has "recently improved significantly."

If it materializes, this would signal one of Intel's most consequential wins in years.

The Timeline

Apple has already signed a non-disclosure agreement with Intel. It received initial access to the company's 18AP process design kit.

Early modeling, covering performance-per-watt and other efficiency benchmarks, is progressing as expected. The next step hinges on Intel releasing updated PDK versions 1.0 and 1.1, projected for the first quarter of 2026.

If development remains on schedule, Apple could begin sourcing low-end M-series processors from Intel sometime between Q2 and Q3 2027.

The Volume

These entry-class chips underpin popular consumer devices, including the MacBook Air and iPad Pro. Combined shipment volumes of roughly 20 million units are anticipated this year.

Apple's lowest-end M processor is expected to ship 15-20 million units in both 2026 and 2027. MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor.

What It Means for Apple

In absolute terms, order volumes are relatively small and have virtually no material impact on TSMC's fundamentals or technology leadership over the next several years. But the signaling and trend implications are meaningful.

For Apple, this shows strong support for the Trump administration's "Made in USA" policy. While clearly expected to remain highly dependent on TSMC's advanced nodes, Apple still needs to secure a second source to meet supply-chain management requirements.

What It Means for Intel

For Intel, winning Apple's advanced-node orders far exceeds the direct revenue and profit contribution from this business.

Although Intel will still be unable to compete head-to-head with TSMC over the next several years, this suggests the worst may soon be over for the IFS business.

Looking ahead, the 14A node and beyond could capture more orders from Apple and other tier-one customers, turning Intel's long-term outlook more positive.

The Geopolitical Context

Kuo noted that Apple's willingness to engage at an advanced process level marks an important shift. This comes at a time when geopolitical considerations are increasingly shaping semiconductor supply chains.

While no agreement has been finalized and timelines remain fluid, the development signals growing diversification away from Asia-based foundries.

The Bottom Line

Intel could begin shipping Apple's entry-level M chips by 2027 using its 18AP node, marking a major foundry win that supports "Made in USA" policy and gives Apple a second source beyond TSMC, though volumes remain small at 15-20 million units annually.