The Drop
US consumer confidence took a nosedive in November. Americans saw sour signs ahead for the economy.
The Conference Board's reading hit 88.7 in November, down 6.8 points from October's level of 95.5.
"Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months," said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
The Recession Signal
The measure of consumers' short-term expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions dropped to 63.2. That remains well below the threshold of 80 that the Conference Board says typically signals a recession ahead.
November was the tenth consecutive month the reading was sub-80.
The Reality
Many Americans harbor pessimistic views about the economy. Though unemployment remains low by historical standards, the jobless rate in September was at its highest since October 2021.
Prices, while rising at a slower pace than the roaring inflation seen in 2022, continue to creep up.
Spending is strong, but evidence suggests much of that trend is being powered by higher-income consumers.
The Complaints
Write-in responses for the Conference Board's report "continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown," Peterson said.
Current Conditions
Just 1% of consumers believed business conditions were "good," down from 20.7% in October.
Six percent of consumers said jobs were "plentiful" compared to 28.6% in October. The share of consumers who reported jobs were "hard to get" ticked down slightly.
Inflation Expectations
Consumers' average inflation expectations for the year ahead were elevated. The median rate increased to 4.8%.
Consumers' assessments of their current financial situations fell to their lowest levels since August 2024.
Looking Ahead
The share of consumers who believe the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth month in a row. That happened even as the share who see a recession as "very likely" in the next 12 months declined.
"Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now," Peterson said. "Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically."
The University of Michigan's measure for consumer sentiment similarly deteriorated in November. Sixty-nine percent of consumers expected unemployment to rise in the year ahead.
The Bottom Line
Consumer confidence crashed to its second-lowest level since April as only 1% of Americans view business conditions as "good" and short-term expectations stayed below the 80 recession threshold for the tenth straight month, driven by concerns about inflation, tariffs, and the government shutdown.
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