AI Megadeals Are Driving M&A Toward Its Biggest Year Since 2021. Mid-Market Firms Are Getting Left Behind.

Global dealmaking is on pace to hit $4 trillion in 2026. If dealmakers close the year at that level, it would be the busiest stretch for M&A since 2021, PwC said.

The engine behind the boom? Megadeals.

Deals valued at $5 billion and up make up nearly half of all M&A activity so far in 2026. A year ago, those megadeals represented 39% of the total. In 2024, the figure was 26%. At the current rate, PwC projects the total value of these jumbo transactions will jump 40% compared with last year.

Deals this size redraw the map for entire sectors, and Market Briefs tells you who's winning every morning - plus a free investing masterclass when you join.

"2026 is the year M&A supersized," said Brian Levy, global deals industries leader at PwC US.

The common thread running through the biggest deals is artificial intelligence. SpaceX agreed last month to acquire Cursor, an AI startup, for $60 billion. Salesforce is picking up Fin, an AI customer service platform, for $3.6 billion. Qualcomm is negotiating to buy Modular, an AI chip company, for approximately $4 billion.

Levy described AI as a force that is reshaping the M&A playbook, steering money toward new industries and determining which sectors gain ground and which lose it. He said the technology is making the M&A market increasingly K-shaped, with the biggest players pulling away from everyone else.

But the picture is not the same for everyone.

Mid-market dealmakers are facing a much tougher environment. PwC noted that smaller dealmakers are still wrestling with an uncertain geopolitical landscape, mismatched price expectations, tepid growth, elevated borrowing costs, and a pileup of private equity assets waiting to be sold. That backlog of unsold portfolio companies has been building for years, and higher interest rates have made it harder to finance new deals at prices both sides can agree on.

The divide matters for investors because it signals where capital is flowing. The companies attracting the biggest checks are the ones with clear AI strategies. That trend is likely to continue as more industries figure out how to use the technology.

PwC also suggested that AI may eventually improve liquidity in private markets by simplifying how assets are valued. If that happens, it could unlock dealmaking in parts of the market that are currently frozen. But the firm stressed that human judgment will remain central to the process.

"That is where trust will sit," PwC said.

Hitting the $4 trillion mark by December would mean M&A activity grew at least 13% compared with last year. Only 2021 was bigger, with deal values topping $5 trillion that year, according to PwC. This year's rebound is being driven by something different: a race to secure AI capabilities before competitors lock them up.

For investors, the K-shaped nature of this market is worth watching. The companies that can afford to write billion-dollar checks for AI startups are the ones positioned to widen their lead. Meanwhile, smaller firms that lack the balance sheet for jumbo acquisitions may find themselves falling further behind as the technology reshapes entire industries.

If you want to follow the money as AI reshapes the market, join 350,000+ readers of Market Briefs - five minutes a day, with a free 45-minute investing course thrown in.