Nike's stock has gone nowhere good for years. It's down about 65% over the past five years.
Now the biggest sporting event on earth is landing in its own backyard. For a company chasing a turnaround, the timing is almost too good.
The World Cup is on home soil for the first time since 1994. Games run across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
That puts the event in front of a much bigger home crowd than the 2022 edition in Qatar. North America is Nike's biggest market, at about 44% of sales.
Soccer is also booming here, helped by stars and streaming. Nike wants to own that moment.
The 1994 event helped grow the sport here. Nike wants a repeat, only bigger.
It could put up to $4.9 billion of marketing behind its brands. Rival Adidas has about $3 billion, per RBC Capital Markets.
Spending more when everyone is watching is the whole bet. It's like buying the best seat in a packed stadium.
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Nike also has more horses in the race. It sponsors six of the likely top 10 teams.
That list includes Brazil, France, England, and Portugal. Adidas backs four, including Argentina, Spain, and Germany.
Brazil alone is a marketing gift, with one of the sport's biggest fan bases. Portugal brings star power too.
More teams mean more shirts and more ads. It's a numbers game Nike likes.
That edge matters because a World Cup is a global showroom for gear. RBC analyst Piral Dadhania said Nike should "utilize its spend advantage" as it revamps its lineup.
RBC turned more positive on the stock. It lifted its rating to outperform and raised its price target to $90 from $76.
That points to roughly 25% upside over the next year. The firm now sees Nike pulling in $47.3 billion in 2026 revenue.
Analysts had pegged that figure closer to $45.9 billion. New running and basketball gear lands first, with a World Cup product push set for March.
RBC also sees stronger demand for sneakers. That trend should help beyond the World Cup.
Nike's own boss is more careful. CEO Elliott Hill called early feedback positive, but he warned that "a full recovery will take time."
A World Cup is a spark, not a cure. Nike still has to turn all that attention into actual sales.
One strong tournament won't undo years of stumbles on its own. But the whole world is about to watch soccer on Nike's home field.
Fans buy jerseys and shoes during big tournaments. Nike needs that bump to stick.
Now it just has to sell them something.
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