Economists in the Bloomberg poll now anticipate that two 0.25 percentage point moves will probably have taken effect before the first quarter of next year is over. They kept their September call that the Riksbank will lift its policy rate to 2% from 1.75% during this quarter, and they have brought forward the projected second move to 2.25%, placing it in the January-to-March period of 2027 instead of the third quarter of next year as previously forecast.
Interest rate swaps point to a steeper path than the survey, with traders pricing a total of 78 basis points of additional increases by the March policy meeting. The latest meeting minutes show officials led by Governor Erik Thedéen seeing a greater risk of inflation staying too high as the economy gains momentum, with deliveries of energy to Europe through the Strait of Hormuz still constrained.
For Swedish GDP, economists now expect 2.6% growth for this year, up from 2.3%, and they continue to project 2.2% for next year. In a separate survey, analysts left Norway's mainland GDP growth for this year at 1% and nudged next year up to 1.5% from 1.4%.
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The bottom line: earlier tightening paired with firmer growth is the setup to track for your portfolio, especially with markets already pricing a faster path than economists expect.
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