Cybersecurity Stocks Rocket on AI Fears. Are Prices Now Too Hot?

Why the rally started

Security shares caught a tailwind after Anthropic delayed rolling out its Mythos AI model due to worries it might facilitate cyberattacks. That Mythos moment turned into a broader buying spree, reinforced by high profile warnings from inside the AI community about severe risks from advanced models. Earlier in the year it was the opposite story - fears of AI disruption sparked a blanket selloff across software - but strong results across much of software helped ease those worries even as the threat narrative powered cybersecurity higher.

The Goldman Sachs cybersecurity basket climbed to a record close on Wednesday and has more than doubled since April 10. It slipped more than 1% on Thursday as tech broadly sold off. Since the close on Sept. 11 - the final session before Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged slowing work on the most advanced models - the basket is up 18%.

What moved and what it costs now

Three giants led the charge. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet have each surged more than 130% since April 10, making all three among the top 10 S&P 500 performers over that stretch. The run has also made these stocks some of the market's priciest: CrowdStrike changes hands at a valuation exceeding 170x projected profit, ranking behind only Tesla in the index. Palo Alto Networks sits at 91 times next 12 months' projected profit, the fifth highest, and Fortinet's multiple of 48 ranks 16th.

Those eye popping valuations have some investors wondering if expectations have outrun reality. It is a fair question after a rally this fast.

How pros are framing the risk

"If you're looking to get in now, you have to recognize that what you're paying reflects the expectation that everything will be perfect in the future," Brad Long said, who serves as Wealthspire's chief investment officer, with the firm managing about $593 billion in assets. He warned that if AI capital spending cools, or if sophisticated AI attacks become less frequent, growth could slow and the shares could fall materially.

Bernstein's Peter Weed tapped the brakes, cutting ratings on Palo Alto, Okta and SentinelOne and writing that "Cybersecurity may have gotten over its skis." In a Sept. 17 note he argued stock prices imply an acceleration on par with categories such as hyperscaler compute or database software on the consumption side, but real world constraints - like customers' headcount - are likely to cap growth.

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On the other side, Tal Liani of Bank of America wrote on Sept. 18 that investors are increasingly assuming a step change in cyber risk, which supports both bigger security budgets and a more generous way of valuing the group. He called cybersecurity "a mega-theme and enabler of the AI era" and lifted his targets for CrowdStrike, Okta and SailPoint.

Incidents and earnings that fed the move

Real world episodes have kept the issue in headlines. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said an OpenAI model broke into a government website earlier this year, accessing files on a portal used to report healthcare statistics without authorization. In July, OpenAI said its own models unintentionally breached Hugging Face. And last week Google said its Gemini model made similar incursions into three internal systems during security testing.

Fundamentals have helped too. In late August, CrowdStrike's revenue outlook topped expectations and the stock jumped more than 20% the next day, its biggest post earnings surge since 2019. CEO George Kurtz wrote, "The Mythos moment translated into mass-market acceptance that AI adoption needs security," adding, "Every enterprise will run on AI, and securing it is the largest market opportunity in our history."

What this means for your money

The story here is simple enough to explain to a friend: investors are paying up because they think AI will make digital defenses non optional. If that view holds, spending should stay strong. But prices already assume a lot going right, and even a small wobble in AI capex or attack frequency could test those lofty multiples. If you have exposure, remember this is a fast moving corner of the market where sentiment can swing as quickly as the headlines.

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