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Home » Deep Briefs »  » Why The Japanese Stock Market Could Outperform U.S. Markets This Year

Why The Japanese Stock Market Could Outperform U.S. Markets This Year

Published: Jan 21, 2026 
Disclosure: Briefs Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser. All content is general information and for educational purposes only, not individualized advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security. Investing involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and should consult a licensed financial, legal, or tax professional before acting on any information provided.
Summary:

Japan's stock market is experiencing a rare transformation right now.

Companies are now being forced to prioritize shareholders over executives.

Combined with rising interest rates, this creates a potential opportunity for U.S. investors

If you walk through Tokyo's Kabutocho district, you'll find yourself in the heart of Japanese finance. 

This is Japan's Wall Street, home to the Tokyo Stock Exchange - the world's third-largest stock exchange with a market cap of $7.59 trillion as of October 2025.

Only the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and Shanghai exchanges are larger.

But here's the thing: Despite its massive size, the Japanese stock market has never quite had the same momentum as its American counterparts. 

For years, Japanese stocks have underperformed U.S. markets, delivering lackluster returns even when adjusted for currency fluctuations.

Both markets posted roughly 85% returns over the past five years as of 2025. 

But when you account for the yen's depreciation against the dollar during that period, Tokyo's actual return to international investors is significantly lower.

There's been one primary reason for this underperformance: Japanese companies have traditionally been run to benefit executives and employees, not shareholders.

Lifetime employment guarantees, executive bonuses tied to seniority rather than performance, and loyalty to long-term suppliers even when it hurt the bottom line - these were hallmarks of Japanese corporate culture.

Now, that's starting to change.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange just rolled out sweeping reforms that are forcing Japanese corporations to flip their entire business model upside down. 

They're moving from "stakeholder first" to "shareholder first" — the exact same shift that created massive wealth in America starting in the 1980s.

And for investors paying attention, this could be one of the most significant market opportunities of the decade.

Let’s break down what’s going on in Japan right now, some potential opportunities for investors, and some risks you need to know about.

Before you read on: We covered this market shift more in depth weeks ago in Market Briefs Pro.

The report shows you all of the potential stock market opportunities that are benefiting from this shift, and breaks down the data and research in a way you can actually understand.

Subscribe to Market Briefs Pro here to get the full in-depth report.

The Broad Market Shift: Japan's Corporate Revolution Meets Rising Rates

Japan is experiencing two major forces at once - creating a rare opportunity for investors.

Force #1: Corporate Culture Overhaul

The Tokyo Stock Exchange is now requiring companies to meet minimum price-to-book ratios.

What's a price-to-book ratio? It shows how much value a company's assets have compared to its stock price.

Companies that don't meet these standards get put on a public "name and shame" list.

In Japan's reputation-focused culture, this public pressure is forcing massive changes.

Force #2: Interest Rates Going Up

While the Federal Reserve and other central banks are cutting rates, Japan is doing the opposite - raising them.

Japan's rates hit 0.75% in December 2025, the highest in 30 years.

Why does this matter? Higher rates mean Japanese banks can charge more on loans while paying less to depositors - expanding their profit margins significantly.

For banks with large deposit bases, rising rates translate directly into higher profits.

The companies best positioned to benefit? Japan's largest corporations - many available to U.S. investors through ADRs (American Depository Receipts), which trade just like regular stocks.

The Banking Opportunity: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is basically Japan's version of J.P. Morgan - the country's largest bank with exposure to everything from consumer deposits to investment banking.

It's positioned to benefit from both rising rates and corporate reforms.

The Interest Rate Advantage

Banks make money from the spread between what they charge on loans and what they pay on deposits.

When Japan's rates were zero or negative, this spread was razor-thin - banks had almost no room to profit.

Now, as rates rise, MUFG can charge significantly more on loans while keeping deposit rates relatively stable.

MUFG has one of the largest deposit bases in Japan, which means higher rates translate directly to higher profits.

The company projects rising rates will increase profits by approximately 30%.

Its fee income has already grown from 1.4 trillion yen in 2020 to 2.1 trillion yen in 2024 - showing the bank isn't solely dependent on interest rates.

Shareholder-First Transformation

MUFG has committed to ambitious 2026 goals:

  • 9% Return on Equity (RoE).
  • Net Operating Profit of 2.1 trillion yen.

Return on Equity shows how effectively a company uses shareholder money to generate profits. MUFG's RoE has climbed from 8.1% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2024.

The potential for investors?

Shares of MUFG are up over 36% year-to-date as of December 2025, crushing the S&P 500's 15% gain.

The stock just broke all-time highs set in 2006 - before the financial crisis.

Its forward P/E ratio of around 12 is relatively modest for a company experiencing this level of transformation and profit acceleration.

Who else? Our analysts dove deeper into other potential opportunities that are being created from this shift.

You can read more about them by subscribing to Market Briefs Pro.

What Could Go Wrong: Understanding the Risks

The biggest risk is the Bank of Japan's balancing act with interest rates.

Raise rates too much? The yen becomes expensive, hurting exporters like Toyota by making their products more costly overseas.

Raise rates too little? The yen stays weak and inflation continues eroding purchasing power.

There's also the "window dressing" problem - Japanese companies have a history of making surface-level changes to satisfy regulators without genuine reform.

Some companies may announce buybacks to avoid public shaming, but lack the commitment to actually restructure operations, lay off staff, or make hard decisions that conflict with traditional business culture.

Lastly, Japan is an export-dependent economy. If the U.S. enters a downturn in 2026, demand for Japanese exports will drop - hurting even the best-positioned companies.

How to Access This Opportunity

U.S. investors can buy Japanese stocks through ADRs (American Depository Receipts) - they trade on U.S. exchanges just like regular stocks.

MUFG for instance trades on American exchanges in U.S. dollars through standard brokerage accounts.

The Bottom Line On Japan’s Stock Market

We're in the early innings of a multi-year shift. The Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms are recent, and many companies are just beginning to restructure.

Watch for companies that actually execute their commitments - not just announce them.

For investors willing to think long-term and handle volatility, Japan's corporate revolution could be one of the most significant opportunities of the decade.

But as always - do your own due diligence before investing and consult with a financial advisor if you have further questions.

All investing comes with risk - especially markets outside of the U.S., so it’s important to understand that these opportunities could lose value.

Here’s the thing though: There’s a lot more to this shift and the potential opportunities than what we can talk about here.

If you want the full breakdown with even more data and research, subscribe to Market Briefs Pro today.


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