Most central banks are frozen right now, trying to figure out what an active war in the Middle East does to inflation before they move again. Zambia bucked the trend and cut.
The Bank of Zambia lowered its main policy rate by a quarter point to 13.25% on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters expected the central bank to stay put. Governor Denny Kalyalya cut anyway, pointing to an expected strong maize harvest and a relatively stable kwacha as the main reasons.
That makes three straight cuts, with February's move much bigger at 75 basis points.
The pace is slowing, but the direction isn't.
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The case for cutting comes down to one number: inflation.
Zambian prices rose 6.8% year over year in April, down from 7.1% the month before. That's four straight months of cooling, and it sits inside the bank's 6%-8% target band.
A year ago, inflation was running in the double digits, the kwacha was weak, and a drought had wrecked the corn harvest. Both of those problems have eased, and the central bank now has room to cut.
The bank now sees inflation averaging 6.8% in 2026 and falling to 6.1% in 2027.
The smaller cut size - 25 basis points instead of 75 - is the Iran piece of the story.
Kalyalya said the US-Israeli war against Iran is the main reason for keeping the move cautious. Higher global oil prices are the obvious channel, since Zambia imports its fuel.
To blunt that hit, the government already suspended some fuel taxes for three months starting in April.
For emerging market investors, Zambia's move is a reminder that the rate-cut cycle isn't dead. It's just on hold in the bigger economies.
Copper prices, the kwacha, and how the war plays out are the three things that will decide whether the next move is another cut or a hold.
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