The Numbers

Gold surged 64% in 2025 — its best annual performance since 1979. It set more than 50 new all-time highs over the course of the year, roughly one per week. On January 28, 2026, it hit a new peak of $5,595 per ounce, a level that would have sounded like a fever dream to most investors just two years ago.

The metal has since pulled back to around $4,500 as Iran war volatility scrambled correlations across all assets — but even at that level, gold is up roughly 70% from where it traded a year ago, far ahead of U.S. equities.

For context: the S&P 500 is down more than 8% from its January peak.

Why It's Happening

Gold doesn't pay dividends and doesn't generate earnings. It wins when people don't trust other things.

Right now, that means a lot of tailwinds. Central banks — particularly in emerging markets — are buying gold at roughly three times their pre-2022 pace, averaging around 60 tonnes per month according to Goldman Sachs. Countries are quietly diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated assets.

Simultaneously, individual investors and institutions have poured into gold ETFs. Global gold ETF inflows hit $89 billion in 2025 — the largest ever recorded — with total assets under management doubling to $559 billion.

What Comes Next

Goldman Sachs has a December 2026 price target of $5,400. Societe Generale sees $6,000. The bear case is simple: if the Iran conflict resolves quickly and inflation fades, investors rotate back into risk assets and gold gives back gains.

But the structural story — central banks diversifying reserves, geopolitical uncertainty staying elevated, real interest rates potentially falling — doesn't hinge on one war. Those trends were in place well before February 28.