NEWS / Economy

While Stocks Pull Back, Gold Has Had One of Its Best Years in History

Briefs Finance

Published Mar 30, 2026

Two pillars—one of gears and falling stock charts, the other of gold bars and coins—stand by a waterfront with a city skyline, symbolizing how stocks and gold reflect the market’s best years.

Summary:

Gold hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in late January, and despite pulling back to around $4,500 in the Iran war volatility, it has still returned roughly 64% over the past 12 months.

Central banks are buying gold at three times their pre-2022 pace, and global gold ETF inflows hit an all-time record in 2025 at $89 billion.

Gold has dramatically outperformed every major U.S. stock index this year — and most analysts think the rally has further to run.

The Numbers

Gold surged 64% in 2025 — its best annual performance since 1979. It set more than 50 new all-time highs over the course of the year, roughly one per week. On January 28, 2026, it hit a new peak of $5,595 per ounce, a level that would have sounded like a fever dream to most investors just two years ago.

The metal has since pulled back to around $4,500 as Iran war volatility scrambled correlations across all assets — but even at that level, gold is up roughly 70% from where it traded a year ago, far ahead of U.S. equities.

For context: the S&P 500 is down more than 8% from its January peak.

Why It's Happening

Gold doesn't pay dividends and doesn't generate earnings. It wins when people don't trust other things.

Right now, that means a lot of tailwinds. Central banks — particularly in emerging markets — are buying gold at roughly three times their pre-2022 pace, averaging around 60 tonnes per month according to Goldman Sachs. Countries are quietly diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated assets.

Simultaneously, individual investors and institutions have poured into gold ETFs. Global gold ETF inflows hit $89 billion in 2025 — the largest ever recorded — with total assets under management doubling to $559 billion.

What Comes Next

Goldman Sachs has a December 2026 price target of $5,400. Societe Generale sees $6,000. The bear case is simple: if the Iran conflict resolves quickly and inflation fades, investors rotate back into risk assets and gold gives back gains.

But the structural story — central banks diversifying reserves, geopolitical uncertainty staying elevated, real interest rates potentially falling — doesn't hinge on one war. Those trends were in place well before February 28.

Disclosure