The U.S. just hit a debt mark last seen in 1946. Back then, the country had just won a world war.
This time, there is no war. Just spending.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis put out new data Thursday. Public debt sat at $31.27 trillion at the end of March.
GDP for the 12 months ending in March was $31.22 trillion. So public debt is now bigger than the U.S. economy.
That is the first time it has crossed that line since the years right after World War II. Most economists watch this measure over the headline debt number.
It strips out money the government owes to itself. So it is the cleaner read.
The all-time record is 106% of GDP, set in 1946. The Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S. to blow past that mark in 2030.
Debt would hit 108% of GDP that year. A decade from now, the CBO sees debt at 120% of GDP.
The CBO also expects debt to keep growing faster than the economy in the years ahead. That math has real costs.
The CBO warned it could slow growth and push down private spending. It could also drive up the cost of paying interest.
Maya MacGuineas runs the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. She put it bluntly: the post-war record came from a global war.
This one comes from a refusal to make hard budget choices. She said rising debt cuts into wealth and raises borrowing costs.
It also adds to inflation worries. Without action, she said, it could spark a fiscal crisis.
Her quote: "Debt squeezes our budgets with massive interest costs."
Her group puts the gap at about $10 trillion in deficit cuts. That is the size of the cut needed to stabilize debt as a share of GDP.
One option she pointed to: bring annual deficits down to 3% of GDP.
Higher debt can mean higher long-term interest rates. That weighs on bond prices and lifts the cost of money for businesses.
Higher rates can crowd out private spending in housing, autos, and capital projects. For stocks, the link is less direct.
But fast-rising debt can lift inflation worries. That tends to pull on rate-sensitive sectors first.
Investors may want to watch how the bond market prices new debt. Yields on long-dated Treasuries often signal when debt worry shifts from talk to action.
For context, the post-war debt drop took decades. From 1946 to the late 1970s, debt as a share of GDP fell from 106% to about 25%.
Strong growth and inflation did most of the work. The CBO sees no such drop ahead.
A higher debt load also limits room for action. If a real shock hits, the U.S. has less slack to spend.
That is the scenario MacGuineas warns about.
The 1946 record stood for 80 years. The CBO says it falls in 2030.
