Belarus makes a lot of fertilizer, and the world needs that fertilizer to grow food. But Belarus also helped Russia invade Ukraine, and the West responded by cutting it off from global markets.
Now the U.S. is trying to walk part of that back, and it wants Ukraine to help.
The Trump administration has been quietly pushing Kyiv to ease restrictions on potash imports from Belarus, according to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday. Washington has also asked Ukrainian officials to make the case to European nations.
The U.S. argument: lifting restrictions could pull Belarus a little further from Russia and improve ties with Minsk - and both the State Department and Ukraine's Foreign Ministry declined to comment when asked.
This isn't Washington's first move in that direction. The U.S. already eased its own sanctions on three Belarusian potash producers earlier this year, after Minsk released hundreds of political prisoners in a U.S.-brokered deal.
The stakes are big because Belarus is one of the world's biggest potash producers. Canada, Russia, and Belarus together account for roughly 70% of global potash production, so any shift in Belarusian supply ripples through fertilizer markets quickly.
That sanctions-driven supply cut tightened global markets and pushed input costs higher for farmers across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
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Easing U.S. restrictions alone doesn't do much, because Belarus is landlocked.
Before 2021, its potash moved through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda. After U.S. sanctions hit Belaruskali that year, Belarus shifted exports to Russian rails and ports.
Without Lithuania or Poland reopening transit, the fertilizer can only flow east, which keeps the Russia dependence in place. Lithuania's foreign minister reportedly said U.S. pressure on potash transit is increasing.
Lithuania's president has said the sanctions aren't going anywhere, and his view is that the Belarus regime hasn't changed its behavior.
It's like cutting the front door to a warehouse but leaving the back door padlocked - goods can't really move.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned this month that Belarus risks getting pulled deeper into Russia's war. Minsk then announced surprise nuclear drills with Russian forces on Monday, complicating any near-term push for sanctions relief.
Belarus has allowed Russian forces to operate from its territory throughout the war, which makes any sanctions relief politically explosive in Kyiv and several EU capitals.
Where the players stand:
Potash is one of the biggest fertilizer inputs for global agriculture, so any easing matters for crop costs. If sanctions ease anywhere, a fresh flood of Belarusian potash would push prices lower.
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