Free NewsletterPro Login

The Fed Still Expects to Cut Rates This Year - Even With a War Going On

Published Apr 8, 2026
Share:
A judge’s gavel rests on top of a thick stack of documents on a wooden table in a courtroom, with a BriefsFinance watermark in the corner.
Summary:
  • Fed officials at their March meeting still expected at least one rate cut in 2026, matching their December forecast.
  • Rate-cut odds for December jumped to 43% after the ceasefire, up from 14% a week earlier.
  • The Fed voted 11-1 to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with officials calling conditions "uncertain."

The Fed just told investors what they wanted to hear: rate cuts still might happen.

March meeting notes released Wednesday showed most officials still expect to cut rates at least once this year. That's the same view they had in December - before the Iran war changed things.

War Made It Complicated

The March meeting was just weeks after the U.S. and Israel hit Iran. Oil had shot up. Price worries were rising. The Fed was stuck in the middle - worried about costs going up and jobs slowing at the same time.

Officials said they'd need to stay ready to move. Some warned higher oil costs could hurt spending and tighten money. Others worried the war could push prices up for longer.

The committee voted 11-1 to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%.

Then the Ceasefire Landed

Hours after the notes came out, markets were pricing in something new. The ceasefire sent oil down below $100 and gave traders hope for easier money.

Rate-cut odds for December jumped to 43%, up from 14% a week ago, per CME's FedWatch tool. A Dallas Fed study found that prices could improve fast if the Strait of Hormuz opens again.

What to Watch

The Fed is reading the same ceasefire news everyone sees. If oil stays below $100 and the truce holds, cuts look more likely. If the deal breaks, they're back to square one.

GDP grew just 0.7% in Q4 2025. It's tracking 1.3% for Q1 2026. The economy needs help.

Disclosure

Get Market Briefs delivered to your inbox every morning for free!

No fluff. No noise. No politics. Just finance news you can read in 5 minutes.

Blogs

April 28, 2026
Core-Satellite Portfolio: The Best of Both Worlds
  • A core-satellite portfolio splits investments into stable core holdings and higher-risk satellite picks.
  • The core is usually 60% of the portfolio, with satellites at 40%.
  • It blends passive index investing with active opportunity bets.
Read More
April 28, 2026
Bond Ladder Strategy: The Income Plan With Built-In Flexibility
  • A bond ladder is a series of bonds with staggered maturity dates, often one to five years apart.
  • It gives you regular access to cash, predictable income, and protection from rate changes.
  • It works for Treasuries, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and CDs.
Read More
April 28, 2026
Silver vs Gold Investing: Which One Belongs in Your Portfolio?
  • Gold is the stable store of value, used as crisis insurance during recessions and conflict.
  • Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal, with more volatile pricing.
  • Most investors hold a mix in their alternative investment allocation, often 5% to 12% of portfolio.
Read More
April 28, 2026
What Is a Dividend Reinvestment Plan? The Wealth Snowball Explained
  • A dividend reinvestment plan, or DRIP, automatically uses dividend payments to buy more shares.
  • DRIPs power compound growth - dividends buy shares that pay dividends that buy more shares.
  • Most brokerages offer DRIPs free, and many include fractional shares so every penny goes back in.
Read More
April 28, 2026
How Tariffs Affect the Stock Market
  • Tariffs are extra fees on goods imported into a country, and they hit company profit margins.
  • The S&P 500 dropped over 3% in one day after the 2025 tariff announcement.
  • Tariffs reshape trade flows, creating both losers and unexpected winners.
Read More
April 28, 2026
What Is a 13F Filing? The Smart Money Tracker
  • A 13F filing is a quarterly disclosure of stock holdings from large institutional investors.
  • It shows what hedge funds and asset managers bought, sold, and held last quarter.
  • You can find any 13F free on SEC EDGAR.
Read More
April 28, 2026
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The Number That Tells You If a Company Is Drowning
  • The debt-to-equity ratio compares what a company owes to what shareholders own.
  • The formula is total liabilities divided by total shareholder equity.
  • Lower ratios mean less risk - one of the value markers Warren Buffett looks for.
Read More
April 28, 2026
Non-Financial Analysis of Stocks: The 4-Step Method
  • Non-financial analysis evaluates a company's business, not its financial ratios.
  • It covers four things: business model, CEO, innovation, and moat.
  • It's how investors find companies with long-term staying power.
Read More
April 28, 2026
SEC EDGAR Tutorial: The Free Tool the Pros Use
  • SEC EDGAR is the official free database of public company filings.
  • You can pull 10-Ks, 10-Qs, 8-Ks, and insider trades by ticker or company name.
  • It's the source journalists and analysts use to write their stock stories.
Read More
April 28, 2026
How to Read a 10-Q (Without Losing Your Mind)
  • A 10-Q is a public company's three-month financial update, filed with the SEC.
  • It shows revenue, profits, debt, and cash flow between yearly reports.
  • You can find any company's 10-Q for free on the SEC's EDGAR site.
Read More
1 2 3 18
Share via
Copy link