A possible turning point in the Iran war is on a clock that runs out today.
Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome on Friday morning that the U.S. is waiting on a response from Iran on a proposal to end the war. The Secretary of State spoke after a visit with Pope Leo XIV, and said the goal is to push Iran into "a serious process in negotiation."
Iran said Thursday it is reviewing messages from the U.S. that came through Pakistani mediators, with no reply delivered yet.
Axios and other outlets reported earlier this week that the two sides are close to a 14-point memorandum of understanding to wind down the war and reopen nuclear talks.
Rubio said the U.S. expects to know "something today," with the response setting the tone for whether real negotiations follow.
Even with the proposal in motion, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has been under live fire for two days.
On Thursday, the two sides exchanged shots in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side accusing the other of opening the shooting. On Friday, a U.S. fighter jet disabled two Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman that were trying to skirt the U.S. naval blockade.
Trump has called Thursday's exchange "just a love tap" and said Iran wanted to "make a deal very much."
Rubio also flagged a new wrinkle, with Iran reportedly trying to set up an agency to police traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. He called that "unacceptable."
The U.S.-Iran war began on February 28 with a joint U.S.-Israel operation called Epic Fury.
Iran responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, and CENTCOM moved quickly to a blockade of Iranian ports.
A temporary truce has been in place since, but it has frayed in recent weeks. Friday's tanker strike and Thursday's Strait of Hormuz exchange both happened with that ceasefire technically still in effect.
The Strait normally moves about 20% of the world's oil, and Iran's effective closure of the waterway paired with the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has squeezed global energy supply.
The International Energy Agency has called the situation "the biggest energy security threat in history."
A productive answer from Tehran could put barrels back on the water, while a breakdown means another leg up in oil prices.
Iran's reply was expected before the close of business in Washington, with traders watching every word coming out of Rome.
The next few hours are the ones that matter.
